Solar, Space, and Geomagnetic Weather, Part III, plus News

by Stephanie Osborn
http://www.stephanie-osborn.com

Okay, first off, the third installment of my solar and space weather series has gone up over at Sarah Hoyt's blog, According to Hoyt.

And  an interesting tidbit of information: Several sources are indicating that the cosmic ray influx is increasing. (E.g. see SpaceWeather.com for Sep 1, 2016:  Cosmic Rays in the Atmosphere.)

Now, cosmic rays come in from outside our solar system. Mostly they are particulates, very high-energy charged particles produced in the various high-energy astronomical objects out there. They are very penetrating, and potentially dangerous to life, at least in large quantities. (Not that we are likely to get those large quantities; my point is simply that they ain’t good for ya.)

Normally the solar wind, coupled with the enhanced wind streams from coronas, and CMEs, create enough of a “resisting” effect to keep the cosmic ray flux at Earth fairly low. That said, this means that there is a variation in cosmic ray flux from solar max to solar min.

But 1) we’re only about 2 years out from solar max. We should be 4-5 years away from solar min. 2) If we are indeed going into an extended minimum, then chances are the cosmic ray flux will be higher than at a “simple” solar min.

Just something to keep an eye on.

Additional news:

• Africa saw an annular solar eclipse today. Nearly 97% of the Sun was covered by the Moon for observers in 50 African nations. SpaceWeather.com has a nice gallery of eclipse photography here.

Photo from SpaceWeather.com
Annular solar eclipse seen from Reunion

• We are experiencing a G1 (minor) geomagnetic storm due to the enhanced wind stream from a coronal hole. High-latitude observers should keep a lookout for aurorae and other effects.

• SpaceX's Falcon-9 blew up on the pad at Canaveral today; the rocket and its payload, a satellite owned by Facebook and intended to provide satellite internet capability, were total losses. CEO Elon Musk indicated that the problem "originated around the upper stage oxygen tank," during a static test on the pad. The launch had been planned for Saturday.

CNN: http://money.cnn.com/video/news/2016/09/01/explosion-at-spacex-launch-pad-at-cape-canaveral.cnnmoney/index.html 

ABC: http://abcnews.go.com/Technology/video-captures-spacex-rocket-explosion-launch-site/story?id=41803090 

Business Insider: http://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-spacex-falcon-9-explosion-tweet-2016-9

 ~Stephanie Osborn
http://www.stephanie-osborn.com

Link to Guest Blog Series

by Stephanie Osborn
http://www.stephanie-osborn.com

Just a quick note: Upon request (both from readers and Sarah), I have begun a series on solar, space, and geomagnetic weather on According to Hoyt. The first installment posted today. Future installments should post every Thursday for the next couple of months. I'll try to ensure that a new post goes up here to link my blog readers to it, also.

Here's the link:
https://accordingtohoyt.com/2016/08/18/solar-space-and-geomagnetic-weather-part-i-an-introduction-by-stephanie-osborn/

Throw-Back Thursday: Some Quick Look-Backs and Current Updates

by Stephanie Osborn
http://www.stephanie-osborn.com


Okay, folks, just a quick look into the past for those of you interested; this whole concept started off when a fellow author named Sarah Hoyt asked me to guest-blog for her about solar activity. Since then, she asked me back, so I have two posts on her blog about solar activity, one of which is only a few weeks old. Rather than re-post the whole thing here, I am simply going to link to her blog, to the particular articles in question.

So here's the first one, with lots of background info. It was first posted in May of 2015.
https://accordingtohoyt.com/2015/05/30/solar-space-and-terrestrial-weather-some-reflections-by-stephanie-osborn/

And here is the second one, which was posted in early July 2016.
https://accordingtohoyt.com/2016/07/15/here-spot-cmere-spot-by-stephanie-osborn/

I still get notifications on these from Sarah's blog, and will answer if you have questions, so feel free to post questions or comments, here or there, or in the Osborn Cosmic Weather Report group on Facebook.

For those who want even more information, I strongly recommend picking up my ebook, The Weather Out There Is Frightful: Solar/Space Weather and What It Means for the Earth and You. It's written by a professional astronomer (me) trained in spotted variable star science, for lay people with little to no science background.

CURRENT SOLAR UPDATE: As of this writing (early 4 Aug) we are currently in our fourth consecutive day of no visible sunspots on the near side. This is the fourth group of spotless days since June 1st. The total number of spotless days since that date currently totals 24 out of 64, or 37.5%. If we add in the days with only a tiny, short-lived spot group in that same time frame, we add in 9 more days, or 33 out of 64, at 51.6%.

A visible-light image of the Sun, taken by the Solar Dynamics Observatory on August 2, 2016, depicting a lack of sunspots on the solar near side.

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HOUSEKEEPING NOTE: Oh, by the way, abusive comments and/or argumentative comments will be moderated on the Comet Tales blog and in the Facebook group. And I reserve the right not to answer such posts on Sarah's blog. I don't put up with trolling. I have better things to do with my time.

~Stephanie Osborn
http://www.stephanie-osborn.com