tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15870337507585540832024-03-13T11:53:47.179-05:00Comet TalesUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger249125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1587033750758554083.post-37408616485245640192018-10-16T03:00:00.000-05:002018-10-16T03:00:00.722-05:00Out, Damned Spot! Out, I Say! A Solar Activity UpdateBy Stephanie Osborn<br />
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<span class="MsoHyperlink"><a href="http://www.stephanie-osborn.com/">http://www.stephanie-osborn.com</a></span><o:p></o:p></div>
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<h4>
My experience</h4>
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I did my graduate work in spotted variable stars at
Vanderbilt University, so in the astronomical community I would be considered a
variable star astronomer. Based on our experience, many variable star
astronomers consider the Sun to be at least borderline variable, and I am one
of these. In point of fact, pretty much across the board, astronomers dropped
the “solar constant” years ago, because it simply wasn’t. (Unfortunately, other
disciplines have not.)<o:p></o:p></div>
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I personally have been watching solar activity for many years
now and have watched the activity gradually decrease. As a consequence, I began
keeping a rough spreadsheet in summer 2016 as I watched activity begin to drop
dramatically. So I have about 2 years of recorded data. It is fairly
simplistic, because I only wanted a snapshot and didn’t have time to do more
detail, but it serves the purpose, as we will see shortly.<o:p></o:p></div>
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<h4>
The current solar cycle</h4>
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<o:p></o:p></div>
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This graph is the latter part of solar cycle 23 and all of
cycle 24, roughly to date. (Note, however, that the plot ends in ~March 2018.
It’s very difficult to find plots that are current to the month.) The red line
is the projected curve. The blue line is the smoothed curve. The purple dots
and jagged line are the actual data. <o:p></o:p></div>
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<a href="https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/0/01/Solar_cycle_24_sunspot_number_progression_and_prediction.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"></a><a href="https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/0/01/Solar_cycle_24_sunspot_number_progression_and_prediction.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="550" data-original-width="720" height="244" src="https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/0/01/Solar_cycle_24_sunspot_number_progression_and_prediction.gif" width="320" /></a></div>
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Note that the peak for 24 was approximately half that of 23.
Also note that we are currently already as low as the minimum that ended cycle
23, at approximately 8.5-9 years into an average-11-year cycle. Theoretically,
we still have a couple of years to go before the actual minimum is reached,
though 11 years IS an average.<o:p></o:p></div>
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<h4>
Recent solar cycles</h4>
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Here is a graph presenting solar cycles 14-24(current). This
takes us back to around 1900AD. Note the decrease in the height of the peak
(solar max) of each cycle since ~1980. Note the decreased activity in cycle 20.
Note the gradual increase in peak height from 1900-1960, though there is a
slight drop in cycle 16, around 1930.<o:p></o:p></div>
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<h4>
Long-term observations</h4>
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This next chart goes back a LITTLE farther. This is a view of
activity over the last 400 years. Note that this graph does NOT include cycle
24; it stops at 23. Cycle 24 is already at roughly the same level as the cycles
found in the Dalton Extended Minimum, and this has been noted by several groups
with experience in the field.<o:p></o:p></div>
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<a href="https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/2/28/Sunspot_Numbers.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="333" data-original-width="800" height="166" src="https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/2/28/Sunspot_Numbers.png" width="400" /></a></div>
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<h4>
An interesting correlation</h4>
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This is a clipping from a Michigan newspaper which was sent
to me a couple of months ago. Note the article date written in the margin.<o:p></o:p><br />
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Correlate this to the very low peak of solar cycle 20, which
occurred during the 1970s. Note the snow event in 1942, in the cycle subsequent
to the diminished cycle 16. Also consider the “Little Ice Age,” which was a
prolonged cool period (~1300-1900) overarching the four back-to-back extended
minima: the Wolf, Spörer, Maunder, and Dalton Minima (running ~1280-1850AD).
Also note the year 1816, the so-called Year Without A Summer, aka “Poverty Year”
and “Eighteen Hundred and Froze to Death,” which occurred during the Dalton
Minimum (~1790-1830; some argue a later end).<o:p></o:p></div>
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<h4>
My data (2016)</h4>
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Legend:<o:p></o:p></div>
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Column 1 is the year. <o:p></o:p></div>
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Column 2 is the month. <o:p></o:p></div>
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Column 3 is the percentage of days in that month with no more
than 1 sunspot/sunspot group. <o:p></o:p></div>
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Column 4 is the percentage of days in that month with NO
sunspots.<o:p></o:p></div>
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<h4>
My data (2017)</h4>
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<h4>
My data (2018 <span style="mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">—</span>
incomplete)</h4>
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<h4>
My data, graphed (total)</h4>
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Legend:<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="BookText">
The dark green line represents the percentage of days in any
given month with no more than 1 numbered sunspot group.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="BookText">
The light green line represents the percentage of days in any
given month with no sunspot group.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="unlinkedheader">
The latest data<o:p></o:p><br />
<br /></div>
<div class="BookText">
I haven’t had a chance to include the last couple of months
of data in the charts as yet. However, in brief synopsis, May had 77.4% of days
with no more than 1 sunspot group, and two sets of seven consecutive spotless
days. June was much the same, with another spotless week early on; another
session of spotless days began June 27<sup>th</sup>...and continued through the
entirety of July. Today, as I write this, it is July 31<sup>st</sup>, and we
have had 35 consecutive spotless days. Since it takes about 24.5 days for the
solar equatorial regions to rotate once around its axis, this means that we
have seen the entire photosphere spotless; not even the solar farside has
spots, and this appears to be corroborated by the STEREO solar observing
platforms. A couple of short-lived, almost-spot plages developed during this
period, on July 3<sup>rd</sup> and 21<sup>st</sup>, but otherwise there were no
visible photospheric features. Virtually the only other solar activity came
from the enhanced solar wind streams from coronal holes, and even those are
diminishing in size and strength.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="BookText">
<br /></div>
<h4>
Other solar activity</h4>
<div class="unlinkedheader">
<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="BookText">
Flare numbers are decreasing; CME numbers are decreasing. BUT
cosmic ray flux is increasing. Why? And what do all those words mean, anyway?<o:p></o:p><br />
<br /></div>
<div class="BookText">
Sunspots, flares, and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are all
related; flares tend to produce CMEs, and tend to form near spots. This is
because they are all magnetic events. A sunspot is believed to be the “snarl”
produced in the magnetic field lines as a result of differential rotation —
since the Sun is not a solid body, it does not rotate uniformly; rather, it
follows Kepler’s Laws of orbital motion. The poles rotate faster than the
equator, and the interior rotates faster than the photosphere. But since it is
a plasma body, and plasma is composed of charged particles, it generates a
strong magnetic field. As this differential rotation proceeds, the field lines
gradually wrap up. If (among other things) local inhomogeneities occur, the
field strength can vary, and the field lines may “snarl.” But they also tend to
move upward as the plasma convects. When the snarls reach the photosphere — the
visible surface — they are slightly cooler, hence darker, and appear as
sunspots.<o:p></o:p><br />
<br /></div>
<div class="BookText">
But these snarls contain carp-tons of magnetic potential
energy. And from time to time, that potential energy manages to release itself,
in the form of a magnetic reconnection event. This is, in essence, the field
trying to simplify itself and untangle, after a fashion — the field lines break
here and reattach over there, in an effort to reshape themselves and eliminate
the snarl. This converts the potential energy into tremendous amounts of other
kinds of energy <span style="mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">— thermal
and kinetic, to name a couple —</span> and the result is a flare. This
explosive event can — but does not always <span style="mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">—</span> then generate the equivalent of a mushroom cloud,
which blows off the photosphere into the solar system, accelerated by the
reconfiguring magnetic fields. This “mushroom cloud” is the CME.<o:p></o:p><br />
<br /></div>
<div class="BookText">
Given that this differential rotation creates an extremely
complex overall magnetic field, sometimes field lines leave the Sun and stretch
off <span style="mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">— essentially to
infinity — in places not normal for a typical dipole (bar) magnet, which
ordinarily would mean JUST the poles. These regions of “infinite field lines”
are visible in certain wavelengths of light as darker regions, due to the
relative lack of plasma in the inner corona, and they are called coronal holes.
The solar wind tends to be “enhanced” along these field lines, since the
magnetic field is effectively accelerating the plasma in these regions. They
are strong, and can create minor geomagnetic storming and aurorae on Earth (or
the other planets) if we pass through that enhanced wind stream, but it won’t
be as strong as getting hit with a big CME.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span style="mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><br /></span></div>
<div class="BookText">
Cosmic rays are generally subatomic particles of various
sorts, originating from outside our solar system <span style="mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">— sometimes outside our galaxy. They are extremely energetic
and are produced by the more powerful cosmic objects out there: pulsars,
magnetars, supernovae, black hole accretion disks, even quasars. They can be
dangerous precisely because they are so energetic, and often if they hit an object,
they produce a cascade of additional particles. (In atmosphere, this is called
a cosmic ray shower.)<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span style="mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><br /></span></div>
<div class="BookText">
BUT, since most of them are charged particles <span style="mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">—</span> they’d be incredibly
hot plasma if you got enough of ‘em together in one place <span style="mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">— they can be deflected by
magnetic fields. And woo-ha, a moving plasma such as the solar wind constitutes
a current, which in turn generates an interplanetary magnetic field! So this
magnetic field protects the inner solar system from potentially deadly cosmic
radiation. (The term “flux” simply means you’re measuring the number of such
particles passing through a given area — typically a square meter — per
second.)<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span style="mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><br /></span></div>
<div class="BookText">
So. The stronger the interplanetary magnetic field, the
better the protection we have from cosmic rays, and the lower the cosmic ray
flux will be.<o:p></o:p><br />
<br /></div>
<div class="BookText">
BUT.<o:p></o:p><br />
<br /></div>
<div class="BookText">
When the Sun is less active, the slower and less dense the
solar wind will be, hence the weaker the interplanetary field will be.<o:p></o:p><br />
<br /></div>
<div class="BookText">
So we would expect that an active Sun would mean a low cosmic
ray flux, and an inactive Sun would mean a higher cosmic ray flux...and this is
exactly what we see. More, as the solar activity has diminished in recent
years, we have watched the cosmic ray flux increase.<o:p></o:p><br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgAQuvdCAPKtVADAHS_lTc6KhBzNYZEAOSnxMOddVUTSriQroa_Z3G_Egb4YO2j9KQ0YgMIeWqtayBpshOSHBUShCKRn-2RgBa8LCgwq7Md6cD9mWzOop1VwS0pKvJ0MrieH_y14iseyNA/s1600/cosmic+ray+data.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="325" data-original-width="624" height="207" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgAQuvdCAPKtVADAHS_lTc6KhBzNYZEAOSnxMOddVUTSriQroa_Z3G_Egb4YO2j9KQ0YgMIeWqtayBpshOSHBUShCKRn-2RgBa8LCgwq7Md6cD9mWzOop1VwS0pKvJ0MrieH_y14iseyNA/s400/cosmic+ray+data.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
<br /></div>
<div class="BookText" style="text-indent: 0in;">
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<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="BookText">
Credit: graph from spaceweather.com<o:p></o:p><br />
<br /></div>
<div class="BookText">
Note: Stratospheric flux tends to be more representative of
solar system fluxes than lower-altitude measurements; this is because the
atmosphere attenuates the rays. Note how the flux has increased from 78x to 88x
that found at sea level.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="BookText">
<br /></div>
<h4>
My thoughts</h4>
<div class="unlinkedheader">
<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="BookText">
Based on all this information, it is my considered opinion
that we are about to enter an extended minimum, if we are not already in one.
The double-dynamo solar model predicted one more solar cycle before entering an
extended minimum. However, this model, while able to accurately recreate the shapes
of recent solar cycles, has been unable to adequately model historic extended
minima. It must therefore be concluded that it is not complete. It is my
educated conclusion that it does not go far enough, and there is at least one
more dynamo which needs to be modeled. It is therefore likely that the onset
and the exit of the predicted extended minimum may be “squishy,” and the dates
may vary by as much as a solar cycle or more.<o:p></o:p><br />
<br /></div>
<div class="BookText">
It is very true that “correlation does not equal causation,”
but when correlations begin to mount, it is foolhardy to refuse to consider the
possibility of a coupling mechanism. To name a few correlations:<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="BookText" style="margin-left: 1.0in; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -.25in;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: "symbol"; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]-->Greenland/Vinland settlement around 1000AD/tail
end of the Roman Warm Period<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="BookText" style="margin-left: 1.0in; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -.25in;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: "symbol"; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]-->The Little Ice Age/four consecutive extended
minima<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="BookText" style="margin-left: 1.0in; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -.25in;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: "symbol"; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]-->The Year Without A Summer/Dalton Minimum<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="BookText" style="margin-left: 1.0in; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -.25in;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: "symbol"; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]-->Snow in summer in 1942/low-activity Cycle 16
preceding<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="BookText" style="margin-left: 1.0in; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -.25in;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: "symbol"; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]-->Snow in summer in 1979/low-activity Cycle 20
preceding<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="BookText" style="margin-left: 1.0in; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -.25in;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: "symbol"; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]-->Modern Warm Period/increasing solar activity in
1st half 20th Century<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="BookText" style="margin-left: 1.0in; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -.25in;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: "symbol"; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]-->Plateau in warming in the 2000’s/gradual
decrease in solar activity since ~1980<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="BookText">
Yes, certainly volcanic eruptions and other events factor
into the situation. But how many correlations does it take before we need to
sit up and take notice? Before we seriously start to wonder what is really
going on?<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="BookText">
<br /></div>
<div class="BookText">
For more on solar activity, check out <span class="BookTextItalicChar"><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi;"><i><a href="https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B008JA00D0/ref=dbs_a_def_rwt_bibl_vppi_i9">The Weather Out There Is Frightful </a></i></span></span>,
by Stephanie Osborn. <o:p></o:p></div>
<br />Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1587033750758554083.post-3413083861069292152018-10-09T03:00:00.000-05:002018-10-09T03:00:05.903-05:00Kiss Your Ash Goodbye: The Yellowstone Supervolcano, Part V, A Vulcanology Primer<br />
<div class="SceneBreak">
Excerpted from <span class="MsoHyperlink"><a href="file:///C:/Users/Stephanie/Documents/Documents/Writing/Chromosphere%20Press/Popular%20Science/Kiss%20Your%20Ash%20Goodbye/Blog%20articles/bit.ly/Kin-KYAGTYSV"><i>Kiss Your Ash Goodbye: The Yellowstone Supervolcano</i></a></span>,
© 2018<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="SceneBreak">
By Stephanie Osborn<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="SceneBreak">
<span class="MsoHyperlink"><a href="http://www.stephanie-osborn.com/">http://www.stephanie-osborn.com</a></span><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="SceneBreak">
Images in this article are public domain unless otherwise
noted.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="BookText">
<br /></div>
<h3>
What Would Happen If Yellowstone Erupted Today?</h3>
<div class="unlinkedheader">
<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="BookText">
That would depend on the type of eruption. Because, you see,
sometimes Yellowstone vomits, sometimes it coughs, and sometimes it only
sneezes.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="BookText">
<br /></div>
<h4>
The Sneeze: Hydrothermal/Phreatic Eruptions</h4>
<div class="unlinkedheader">
<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="BookText">
A hydrothermal or phreatic eruption is by far the most common
occurrence at Yellowstone. Put simply, it’s a cross between a boiler explosion
and a geyser, and at least at Yellowstone, often leaves new geysers or hot
springs in its wake. The USGS’s definition is as follows: “[A hydrothermal
eruption is an] explosion that can occur when hot water within a volcano’s
hydrothermal (hot water) system flashes to steam, breaking rocks and throwing
them into the air.” And often throwing them a good distance...though NOT nearly
as far as a standard volcanic eruption can chuck a lava bomb.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="BookText">
It does happen, and has happened in living memory — Porkchop
Geyser in the Norris Geyser Basin was formed in this fashion in 1989. More
historically, Excelsior Geyser generated a large, violent hydrothermal eruption
in 1888, which was captured on film; it had been erupting in this fashion off
and on through the 1880s-90s. Duck Lake, the ENTIRE LAKE, is the crater formed
by such a hydrothermal eruption.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="BookText">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://volcanoes.usgs.gov/vsc/images/image_mngr/3100-3199/img3170_400w_267h.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="267" data-original-width="400" height="213" src="https://volcanoes.usgs.gov/vsc/images/image_mngr/3100-3199/img3170_400w_267h.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="BookText">
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<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="SceneBreak" style="text-align: center;">
Hydrothermal explosion at Biscuit Basin in Yellowstone
National Park. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="SceneBreak" style="text-align: center;">
Credit: USGS<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="BookText">
<br /></div>
<div class="BookText">
IMPORTANT NOTE: Even when not in an active eruption,
Yellowstone’s hydrothermal features are dangerous; some 22 people have died
from falling into scalding hot springs since records began in 1870. One of the
most recent, which occurred in 2016 in or in the near vicinity of Porkchop,
resulted in the partial dissolution of the body before it could be recovered,
thanks to the fact that the spring was essentially boiling acid; park rangers
said had it taken much longer to recover the body, there would have been no
body left to recover. (What was the victim going to do, according to his
sister, who saw the whole horrible thing? He was going to take a hot tub bath
in it. He fell in while trying to take the temperature of the water, when the
thin, fragile mineral deposit on which he stood gave way.)<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="BookText">
<br /></div>
<div class="BookText">
Yellowstone is far from the only volcano which generates such
eruptions; I have been present for numerous such eruptions at Mount Saint
Helens. There, they are usually called phreatic eruptions, and may carry some
ash along with the steam vents. They are fairly common occurrences, and take
place anywhere there is snow, ice, or other groundwater source in close
proximity to magma.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="BookText">
Hydrothermal eruptions at Yellowstone are localized to the
vicinity of the explosion, and do not affect the park as a whole. They can
present a danger to bystanders, however, if observers are in the way of either
the large rock ejecta or the scalding and often highly acidic water/steam.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="BookText">
<br /></div>
<div class="BookText">
This is THE MOST LIKELY TYPE OF ERUPTION to occur at
Yellowstone.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="BookText">
<br /></div>
<h4>
The Cough: Ordinary Eruptions</h4>
<div class="unlinkedheader">
<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="BookText">
The last “ordinary” eruption to occur at the Yellowstone
hotspot happened only 70,000 years ago — yesterday, geologically-speaking.
These tend to form fairly common lava flows, and may be somewhat eruptive
(though trap-type flows have also occurred, according to geological evidence).
It would devastate the park, and possibly some of the surrounding land,
depending on exactly where and how the lava surfaced, but would not necessarily
induce a supervolcanic eruption if there is insufficient pressure, or if the
“surface shadow” of the underground melt is not large.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="BookText">
This is the second most likely type of eruption to occur at
Yellowstone.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="BookText">
<!--[if gte vml 1]><o:wrapblock><v:shape id="Picture_x0020_2"
o:spid="_x0000_s1029" type="#_x0000_t75" alt="Yellowstone caldera's NW rim at Madison Junction in Yellowstone National Park.
(Click image to view full size.)"
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<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://volcanoes.usgs.gov/vsc/images/image_mngr/0-99/img20.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="219" data-original-width="350" height="200" src="https://volcanoes.usgs.gov/vsc/images/image_mngr/0-99/img20.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="BookText">
<br /></div>
<div class="SceneBreak" style="text-align: center;">
Yellowstone caldera’s northwest rim at Madison Junction in
Yellowstone National Park. </div>
<div class="SceneBreak" style="text-align: center;">
Note the presence of two overlapping lava flows from
“ordinary” volcanic eruptions. </div>
<div class="SceneBreak" style="text-align: center;">
Credit: USGS.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="BookText">
<br /></div>
<h4>
The Vomit: Super-eruptions</h4>
<div class="unlinkedheader">
<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="BookText">
Super-eruptions take a fairly long time to develop, but as
they progress, they accelerate. It can take anywhere from millennia to mere
decades for the magma chamber to inflate and the signs to manifest, but once
the chamber roof cracks all the way through from the surface, the rest takes
place in a matter of minutes to seconds.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="BookText">
<br /></div>
<div class="BookText">
Once the cap has broken up, a giant plume develops some
12-20mi (20-32km) high. The initial plume collapses to form a giant pyroclastic
flow that wipes everything out within 60-100mi (100-160km). Anything closer
than 125-200 mi (200-325 km) is buried under vast amounts of ash and
roofed/covered structures collapse within hours to days; aircraft can no longer
fly over western USA/Canada, rapidly progressing to all of North America as the
ash cloud spreads. Vehicles stall when air intakes choke on ash. Mud flows form
in rainy areas. The first cases of silicosis develop. The ash cloud sweeps
worldwide, reaching Europe in ~3 days. Global temperatures drop, and Earth
enters a volcanic winter.</div>
<div class="BookText">
<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="BookText">
<br /></div>
<h3>
Modeled Extent of Ashfall in a Modern Super-eruption</h3>
<div class="unlinkedheader">
<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="BookText">
Even Chicago would get up to an inch or more of ash, and the
East Coast gets a solid dusting. The west coast of USA, Canada, and northern
Mexico get no favors, either. The grain belt would be devastated in a matter of
hours.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="BookText">
<br /></div>
<div class="BookText">
Some FEMA researchers estimate the US could take as much as
$3 trillion in damage/loss. Other experts say that as much as 2/3 of the USA
could be rendered uninhabitable.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="BookText">
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<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://sites.agu.org/newsroom/files/2014/08/yellowstone-ash-1.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="618" data-original-width="800" height="247" src="https://sites.agu.org/newsroom/files/2014/08/yellowstone-ash-1.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="BookText">
<br /></div>
<div class="SceneBreak" style="text-align: center;">
The modeled extent of ashfall, </div>
<div class="SceneBreak" style="text-align: center;">
with depth decreasing with
increasing distance, </div>
<div class="SceneBreak" style="text-align: center;">
of a modern-day Yellowstone supereruption. </div>
<div class="SceneBreak" style="text-align: center;">
Credit: USGS.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="BookText">
<br /></div>
<h3>
Don’t Panic!</h3>
<div class="unlinkedheader">
<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="BookText">
A supereruption is the LEAST likely type of eruption to
occur. There are far too many panic-mongers out there.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="BookText">
<br /></div>
<h4>
The 2018 “Incident” That Wasn’t</h4>
<div class="unlinkedheader">
<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="BookText">
While I was writing the ebook, I was pinged on social media
about A DREADFUL SITUATION! OH NOES! HUGE FISSURE OPENS UP INSIDE YELLOWSTONE
SUPERVOLCANO, AREA AROUND FISSURE CLOSED! ERUPTION IMMINENT!!! or impressions
to that effect.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="BookText">
Well, I took one good look at the article’s source and
snorted. And then I got busy researching.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="BookText">
It turns out there was a JOINT FRACTURE in the rock above
Hidden Falls in GRAND TETON NATIONAL PARK, NOT Yellowstone National Park, and
some SIXTY MILES (100km) from Yellowstone. The crack was HORIZONTAL (not
vertical, therefore NOT able to reach down toward a magma chamber, which does
not currently have sufficient melt in it to even inflate, anyway), and was
considered a rock fall hazard, hence the real reason why the immediate area was
closed by the Park Service. Cause of the fracture was most likely the usual
freezing/thawing process that causes such things in mountain ranges.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="BookText">
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o:spid="_x0000_s1027" type="#_x0000_t75" alt="hiddenfalls" style='position:absolute;
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<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://www.nps.gov/grte/learn/news/images/hiddenfalls.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="800" data-original-width="533" height="320" src="https://www.nps.gov/grte/learn/news/images/hiddenfalls.jpg" width="213" /></a></div>
<div class="BookText">
<br /></div>
<div class="SceneBreak" style="text-align: center;">
Hidden Falls in Grand Tetons National Park.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="SceneBreak" style="text-align: center;">
Credit: National Parks Service.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="BookText">
<br /></div>
<h4>
The 2004 Incident</h4>
<div class="unlinkedheader">
<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="BookText">
In 2004, there was a small kill-off of animals in
Yellowstone, notably about half a dozen bison, in a hollow along the Gibbon
River inside the park. This, as well as the slight inflation of the Yellowstone
Lake bed, resulted in significant concern among both geologists and the public
that the magma chamber was inflating and the caldera becoming active.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="SceneBreak">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://www.nps.gov/yell/learn/nature/images/31eadfec85_k_5410277_2.jpg?maxwidth=1200&maxheight=1200&autorotate=false" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="378" data-original-width="800" height="151" src="https://www.nps.gov/yell/learn/nature/images/31eadfec85_k_5410277_2.jpg?maxwidth=1200&maxheight=1200&autorotate=false" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="SceneBreak">
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o:spid="_x0000_s1026" type="#_x0000_t75" alt="A nursery group of bison cows and calves makes its way through Lamar Valley. Due to high rates of survival and reproduction, the bison population increases by 10 to 17% every year: ten times faster than the human population grows worldwide."
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<div style="text-align: center;">
A nursery group of bison cows and calves makes its way through Lamar Valley in
Yellowstone. Credit: National Parks Service/Neal Herbert.</div>
<o:p></o:p><br />
<div class="BookText">
<br /></div>
<div class="BookText">
However, that proved not quite the case.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="BookText">
<br /></div>
<div class="BookText">
You see, the caldera area “breathes.” Elevations go up and
down by small amounts. Sometimes this is because the magma chamber is
inflating, and sometimes it isn’t. In this case, the DEEP chamber (NOT the
shallow chamber, from whence an eruption comes) had in fact had fresh magma
pumped in, but the quantity was small, and it periodically slows, stops, or
even reverses. Scientists believe this is because the “fresh” magma, upon
reaching the bottom of the upper chamber, then flows away through deep
horizontal vents (rather like what Kilauea is doing now), to cool and form
plutons — small to very large bodies of underground, intruded, solidified
igneous rock.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="BookText">
<br /></div>
<div class="BookText">
Often this ground swell is also because there is a tremendous
quantity of ground water heated by the (mostly-solid but still hot) upper magma
chamber. And when water is heated, it expands. As the heated ground water ebbs
and flows, the ground in the area swells and shrinks. This, in turn, tends to
change the activity of the hydrothermal features, increasing or decreasing with
the pressure of ground water.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="BookText">
<br /></div>
<div class="BookText">
That last bit is important, because the animal-kill event
occurred shortly after a cold front passage, when the air was frigid and still,
and the animals took shelter in a low-lying area near the river, where those
same hydrothermal features would help keep the air warm, and make foraging for
food easier. Hydrothermal features such as those found nearby are also known to
emit toxic volcanic gases such as sulfur dioxide, hydrogen sulfide, and carbon
dioxide, often in significant quantities, WITHOUT the need for an eruptive
event — pretty much continuously. And these gases, mostly being heavier than
air, tend to flow along the ground and collect in low-lying areas. Normally,
the winds in the region keep the air sufficiently stirred that concentration is
not particularly dangerous, but certain meteorological conditions — such as
those brought about by the cold front passage — can result in air that is
sufficiently still to allow the vapors to collect and concentrate, and this
appears to be what happened in 2004.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="BookText">
<br /></div>
<div class="BookText">
And this has happened before, several times in recorded
history. This does NOT mean that the caldera is preparing to erupt. Nor does it
mean that such an eruption, IF it took place, would automatically be a
supereruption, as “ordinary” eruptions are more common, based on geologic
studies.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="BookText">
<br /></div>
<h3>
But What if it DID erupt? </h3>
<div class="unlinkedheader">
What do you do?<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="unlinkedheader">
<br /></div>
<div class="BookText">
Kiss your ash goodbye...?<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="BookText">
<br /></div>
<div class="BookText">
No, seriously. What do you do?<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="BookText">
<br /></div>
<div class="BookText">
In all seriousness? Unfortunately, there are some natural
disasters for which it simply isn’t possible to do a lot of advance
preparation. They are simply too big, too widespread, and too variable, to make
plans. Supervolcano eruptions are one of these. Physicist Michio Kaku said it
best, I think...<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="BookText">
<br /></div>
<div class="BookText" style="text-align: center;">
“All you can do is run.” <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="BookText" style="text-align: center;">
~Michio Kaku<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="BookText">
<br /></div>
<div class="BookText">
To obtain a copy of <span class="BookTextItalicChar"><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi;"><i>Kiss
Your Ash Goodbye: The Yellowstone Supervolcano</i></span></span> by Stephanie
Osborn, go to: <span class="MsoHyperlink"><a href="file:///C:/Users/Stephanie/Documents/Documents/Writing/Chromosphere%20Press/Popular%20Science/Kiss%20Your%20Ash%20Goodbye/Blog%20articles/bit.ly/Kin-KYAGTYSV">bit.ly/Kin-KYAGTYSV</a></span>.<o:p></o:p></div>
<br />Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1587033750758554083.post-90247867316223704792018-10-02T03:00:00.017-05:002018-10-02T03:00:02.804-05:00Kiss Your Ash Goodbye: The Yellowstone Supervolcano, Part IV, A Vulcanology PrimerExcerpted from <i>Kiss Your Ash Goodbye: The Yellowstone Supervolcano</i>, © 2018<br />
By Stephanie Osborn<br />
<a href="http://www.stephanie-osborn.com/">http://www.stephanie-osborn.com</a><br />
Images in this article are public domain unless otherwise noted.<br />
<br />
<h3>
Geological History — Known Yellowstone Eruptions</h3>
There have been 3 known “Yellowstone” eruptions with detectable welded-ash (which forms a rock called “tuff”) strata, all of which occurred in approximately the same location:<br />
1) Island Park/Huckleberry Ridge<br />
2) Henry’s Fork/Mesa Falls<br />
3) Yellowstone/Lava Creek<br />
<a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=1587033750758554083" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"></a><a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=1587033750758554083" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"></a><a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=1587033750758554083" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"></a><a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=1587033750758554083" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"></a><a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=1587033750758554083" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"></a><a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=1587033750758554083" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"></a><a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=1587033750758554083" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"></a><a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=1587033750758554083" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"></a><a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=1587033750758554083" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"></a><br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://volcanoes.usgs.gov/vsc/images/image_mngr/300-399/img316_350w_228h.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="228" data-original-width="350" height="208" src="https://volcanoes.usgs.gov/vsc/images/image_mngr/300-399/img316_350w_228h.png" width="320" /></a></div>
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
A map depicting the ash bed strata for all three major Yellowstone supereruptions, </div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
along with the Long Valley eruption’s Bishop ash bed, </div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
and the Mt. St. Helens ash fall, for comparison.</div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
Credit: USGS.</div>
<br />
<h4>
The Island Park/Huckleberry Ridge Eruption</h4>
The Huckleberry Ridge Eruption is the oldest eruption at the current location, some 2.1 million years ago. The caldera formed by this eruption is known as the Island Park Caldera; the stratum of tuff (also “tufa”; a kind of rock composed of welded ash — upon landing, the ash was still hot enough to be partly molten, and the particles literally stuck together, or “welded,” into a single rock layer; it is often porous, fine-grained, but may contain larger, pebble-like particles, especially close to the eruptive source) is the Huckleberry Ridge Tuff.<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/9/91/Tufo_Necropoli_della_Banditaccia.JPG/800px-Tufo_Necropoli_della_Banditaccia.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="600" data-original-width="800" height="240" src="https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/9/91/Tufo_Necropoli_della_Banditaccia.JPG/800px-Tufo_Necropoli_della_Banditaccia.JPG" width="320" /></a></div>
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
Etruscan paving stones composed of tuff from the Italian peninsula.</div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
Credit: Patafisik, <a href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=6918192">https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=6918192</a>, public domain.</div>
<br />
<br />
One of the world’s largest calderas, the Island Park Caldera is at a minimum 50x40mi (80x65km) up to possibly as large as 60x37mi (95x60km) and possibly up to ~0.6mi (1km) deep. This would have been bigger than the state of Rhode Island. The eruption was 2,500x greater than Mt. St. Helens.<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://www.lpi.usra.edu/education/EPO/yellowstone2002/workshop/huckleberry/huckleberry_imgs/p7290540_m.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="800" data-original-width="600" height="320" src="https://www.lpi.usra.edu/education/EPO/yellowstone2002/workshop/huckleberry/huckleberry_imgs/p7290540_m.jpg" width="240" /></a></div>
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
Exposed Huckleberry Ridge tuff strata </div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
(there were several ashfalls in quick succession here) </div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
along the Gardner River near Osprey Falls, </div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
above Mammoth Hot Springs in WY.</div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
Note vehicles for scale.</div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
Credit: <a href="https://www.lpi.usra.edu/education/EPO/yellowstone2002/workshop/huckleberry/index.html">https://www.lpi.usra.edu/education/EPO/yellowstone2002/workshop/huckleberry/index.html</a> </div>
<br />
<h4>
The Henry’s Fork/Mesa Falls Eruption</h4>
The Mesa Falls eruption occurred 1.3 million years ago and produced the Henry’s Fork caldera along with the Mesa Falls Tuff. The Henry’s Fork megacaldera is approximately 18x23mi (11x14km) in dimension, though some argue for a rounder shape, anywhere from 10-20mi (16-32km) in diameter.<br />
This was “only” a VEI 7 eruption, but partly due to its density, and partly its overall size, it is considered a supervolcano eruption.<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/f/f1/Ashton_Quarry.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="500" data-original-width="800" height="200" src="https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/f/f1/Ashton_Quarry.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
Exposed Mesa Falls tuff at south rim of the Island Park Caldera/Henry's Fork Caldera overlap; </div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
near Ashton, ID. Note vehicle for scale.</div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
Credit: <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mesa_Falls_Tuff#/media/File:Ashton_Quarry.jpg">https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mesa_Falls_Tuff#/media/File:Ashton_Quarry.jpg</a> </div>
<br />
<h4>
The Yellowstone/Lava Creek Eruption</h4>
This eruption is the most recent supereruption, and the only one dubbed “Yellowstone”; it occurred “only” ~630,000-640,000 years ago and produced the current Yellowstone caldera, creating the Lava Creek Tuff formation. The current caldera measures 53x28mi (85x45km). The current caldera rim ranges from some 100ft (30m) tall up to nearly a third of a mile (500m) high. This was without doubt a VEI 8 eruption.<br />
<br />
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<a href="https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/5/59/Tuff_cliff_yellowstone_national_park.jpg/1024px-Tuff_cliff_yellowstone_national_park.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="511" data-original-width="800" height="204" src="https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/5/59/Tuff_cliff_yellowstone_national_park.jpg/1024px-Tuff_cliff_yellowstone_national_park.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
Tuff Cliff in Yellowstone National Park, </div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
showing an exposed section of the Lava Creek tuff.</div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
Credit: <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lava_Creek_Tuff#/media/File:Tuff_cliff_yellowstone_national_park.jpg">https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lava_Creek_Tuff#/media/File:Tuff_cliff_yellowstone_national_park.jpg</a> </div>
<br />
<br />
NOTE: It is essential to realize that the maps depict THE EXTENT OF THE TUFF STRATUM FOR EACH ERUPTION, and do NOT indicate the full extent of the ASH FALL. As aforementioned, tuff is formed when the falling ash is still hot enough to be partly molten, so the particles stick together when they contact. Ash can and does fall far beyond the extent of the formation of tuff — the ash plume from a Yellowstone super-eruption would be caught up in the jet streams and swept worldwide.<br />
<br />
<h4>
Other Yellowstone Activity</h4>
So. Three honkin’ big eruptions from the Yellowstone hotspot, huh? Well, really, that’s not a huge record. There’s not that much to worry about, is there?<br />
<br />
Except for the fact that the Yellowstone hotspot has been busy. And it’s been around for MILLIONS of years.<br />
<br />
Yellowstone hotspot eruptions can be tracked from their current location in the corner where Wyoming, Montana, & Idaho meet, all the way back in a southwest direction nearly to the northeast corner of California — as many as a dozen or more! The oldest known eruption dates to at least 16-18 million years ago.<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/8/89/HotspotsSRP_update2013.JPG/800px-HotspotsSRP_update2013.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="549" data-original-width="800" height="219" src="https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/8/89/HotspotsSRP_update2013.JPG/800px-HotspotsSRP_update2013.JPG" width="320" /></a></div>
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
Location of some of the previous Yellowstone-hotspot calderas, with ages indicated.</div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
Credit: Kelvin Case at English Wikipedia, CC BY 3.0, </div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<a href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=29981303">https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=29981303</a> </div>
<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://people.uwec.edu/jolhm/eh2/erickson/histor1.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="511" data-original-width="800" height="204" src="https://people.uwec.edu/jolhm/eh2/erickson/histor1.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
A different version of the map, showing other areal features, </div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
including a few members of the Cascade volcanic chain, </div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
and the Columbia Flood Basalts, a trap eruption which may or </div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
may not be associated with the hotspot.</div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
Credit: Lori Snyder, Department of Geology, University of Wisconsin-Eau Claire, via USGS</div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<a href="https://people.uwec.edu/jolhm/eh2/erickson/history.html">https://people.uwec.edu/jolhm/eh2/erickson/history.html</a> </div>
<br />
Also realize that the Rocky Mountains orogeny (mountain-building) ended some 55 million years ago, meaning they were already formed before the Yellowstone hotspot got to them...yet, aside from some resurgent domes, etc., there are essentially NO mountains in the hotspot track — at least within the megacalderas.<br />
<br />
The mantle plume/hotspot is NOT moving relative to the Earth’s surface overall, nor with respect to the Earth’s core. Plate tectonics creates the appearance that it is moving, when it is really the North American plate moving across the hotspot. The track of past calderas punched through the plate is therefore an inverse record of the direction of movement of the North American plate. The North American Plate is moving roughly southwest to west-southwest, with slight changes in direction over time. This accounts for the direction and slight curvature of the caldera track.<br />
<br />
To obtain a copy of <i>Kiss Your Ash Goodbye: The Yellowstone Supervolcano</i> by Stephanie Osborn, go to: <a href="http://bit.ly/Kin-KYAGTYSV">http://bit.ly/Kin-KYAGTYSV</a>.<br />
<div>
<br /></div>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1587033750758554083.post-5990579731009392832018-09-25T03:00:00.000-05:002018-09-25T03:00:11.774-05:00Kiss Your Ash Goodbye: The Yellowstone Supervolcano, Part III, A Vulcanology Primer<br />
<div class="SceneBreak">
Excerpted from <span class="MsoHyperlink"><a href="file:///C:/Users/Stephanie/Documents/Documents/Writing/Chromosphere%20Press/Popular%20Science/Kiss%20Your%20Ash%20Goodbye/Blog%20articles/bit.ly/Kin-KYAGTYSV"><i>Kiss Your Ash Goodbye: The Yellowstone Supervolcano</i></a></span>,
© 2018<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="SceneBreak">
By Stephanie Osborn<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="SceneBreak">
<span class="MsoHyperlink"><a href="http://www.stephanie-osborn.com/">http://www.stephanie-osborn.com</a></span><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="SceneBreak">
Images in this article are public domain unless otherwise
noted.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="BookText">
<br /></div>
<h3>
The Yellowstone Hotspot and Structure</h3>
<div class="unlinkedheader">
<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="BookText">
<a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=1587033750758554083" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"></a><a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=1587033750758554083" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"></a><a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=1587033750758554083" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"></a><a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=1587033750758554083" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"></a><a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=1587033750758554083" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"></a><a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=1587033750758554083" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"></a><a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=1587033750758554083" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"></a><a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=1587033750758554083" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"></a><a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=1587033750758554083" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"></a>NOTE: I am aware that there is current research claiming that
the subducted Farallon Plate is the source of the Yellowstone melt, as well as
its long-lived behavior and track. However, based on what I know, I am
skeptical.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="BookText">
<br /></div>
<div class="BookText">
For now, in the absence of more definitive results, and given
the fact that the ancient plate is now pretty much crammed almost as far under
the eastern North American plate as it can get and still be under it, and given
detailed information on a mantle plume of some substantial size, it is my
considered opinion that more than likely, the Farallon Plate had only marginal,
if any, effects on Yellowstone. That said, it may possibly be at least part of
the reason why said mantle plume is anything but vertical. (I do discuss all
this in a bit more detail in the ebook.)<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="BookText">
<br /></div>
<div class="BookText">
I also note that the current accepted model is “mantle
hotspot,” with plenty of data to support it. If that should change, I will add
an update.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="BookText">
<br /></div>
<h3>
Overview</h3>
<div class="unlinkedheader">
<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="BookText">
The Yellowstone supervolcano is a very long-lived system.
Unlike most more ordinary volcanoes, which are supplied with magma via such
relatively shallow means as tectonic plate subduction and subsequent melting,
Yellowstone is apparently produced by a large and powerful mantle plume; the
reason for the plume is unknown. As the melt in the plume rises, it pushes on
the overlying crust, “puddling” in a weakness in the overlying rock, forming a
magma chamber. This pressure first forms a bulge (a “dome”), then the crust of
the bulge begins to crack (surface cracks). If these cracks deepen enough to
reach the magma chamber, an eruption can occur. They are also responsible for
the hydrothermal features seen in the national park.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="BookText">
<br /></div>
<h3>
The Plume</h3>
<div class="unlinkedheader">
<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="BookText">
The mantle plume goes down at least 600mi (~966km), but
recent seismic evidence discovered by researchers at the University of Texas
indicates it may go as far down as the outer core/mantle boundary, some 1,800mi
(~2,900km) down. The plume apparently angles sharply south-southwest from the
megacaldera, and the base of the plume can be found under the California/Mexico
border. It is very roughly cylindrical; early estimates indicated it was some
215-300mi (346-483km) in diameter, but more recent estimates say it is at least
400mi (644km) wide. It is 2,050mi (3,300km) long, and up to 1,500ºF (816ºC) at
the base, near the core.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="BookText">
<br /></div>
<h3>
The Magma Chambers</h3>
<div class="unlinkedheader">
<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="BookText">
There are a couple of different reconstructions from seismic
& other data that indicate the possible shape & size of the magma
chamber. More, seismic tomography indicates there are TWO, a shallow and a deep
chamber, with the deep chamber likely directly linked to the mantle plume.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="BookText">
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mso-wrap-style:square'>
<v:imagedata src="file:///C:/Users/STEPHA~1/AppData/Local/Temp/msohtmlclip1/01/clip_image001.jpg"
o:title="Related image"/>
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<div class="SceneBreak">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://www.sciencedaily.com/images/2009/12/091214075225_1_900x600.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="581" data-original-width="800" height="232" src="https://www.sciencedaily.com/images/2009/12/091214075225_1_900x600.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="SceneBreak">
<br /></div>
<div class="SceneBreak" style="text-align: center;">
The deep magma chamber, connected to the upper mantle plume.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="SceneBreak" style="text-align: center;">
Note state lines and park/caldera outlines on top and
bottom of cube, for scale. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="SceneBreak" style="text-align: center;">
Credit: <span class="MsoHyperlink"><a href="https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/12/091214075225.htm">https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/12/091214075225.htm</a></span>
<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="BookText">
<br /></div>
<div class="BookText">
According to the USGS, “The shallower magma storage region is
about 90km (56mi) long, [and] extends from 5-17km (3-10.5mi) depth.”<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="BookText">
<br /></div>
<div class="BookText">
In turn, and from the same source, “The deeper magma storage
region extends from 20-50km (12-31mi) depth, contains about 2% melt, and is
about 4.5 times larger than the shallow magma body.”<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="BookText">
If we assume <span style="mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">—</span>
based on those measurements <span style="mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">—</span>
average values for length, width, and height, such that the smaller chamber is
a rough prolate ellipsoid of approximate dimension 7.5x7.5x56mi (12x12x90km),
then it has a rough volume of ~13,000cu. mi. (~54,000km3). This then gives a
volume for the deeper chamber of 58,500cu. mi. (~244,000km3).<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="BookText">
<br /></div>
<div class="BookText">
However, as it turns out, generally speaking, magma chambers
don’t induce eruption until they have surpassed the 50%-full mark. And that’s a
whole heck of a lot of magma, AND we’re only at 2%. On general principles, I
think we’re good.</div>
<div class="BookText">
<br /></div>
<h3>
The Geysers/Hydrothermal Features</h3>
<div class="unlinkedheader">
<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="BookText">
The geysers, hot springs, mud pots, fumaroles, and the like
are fed by ancient rain- and meltwaters <span style="mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">—
the local ground water, in essence, except it is often coming from depth —</span>
that seep through the network of cracks and fractures in the rock. They are
heated by the chambers and gradually rise, eventually forcing their way to the
surface to form geysers and all the other hydrothermal features common to
Yellowstone and other such similar volcanic landscapes.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="BookText">
<br /></div>
<div class="BookText">
<span style="mso-no-proof: yes;"><!--[if gte vml 1]><v:shape
id="Picture_x0020_2" o:spid="_x0000_i1026" type="#_x0000_t75" alt="Image result for yellowstone geyser"
style='width:5in;height:300pt;visibility:visible;mso-wrap-style:square'>
<v:imagedata src="file:///C:/Users/STEPHA~1/AppData/Local/Temp/msohtmlclip1/01/clip_image002.jpg"
o:title="Image result for yellowstone geyser"/>
</v:shape><![endif]--><!--[if !vml]--><!--[endif]--></span><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://www.nps.gov/yell/learn/nature/images/riverside.jpg?maxwidth=650&autorotate=false" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="400" data-original-width="480" height="266" src="https://www.nps.gov/yell/learn/nature/images/riverside.jpg?maxwidth=650&autorotate=false" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="SceneBreak">
<br /></div>
<div class="SceneBreak" style="text-align: center;">
Riverside Geyser. Credit: National Park Service.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="SceneBreak">
<br /></div>
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id="Picture_x0020_3" o:spid="_x0000_i1025" type="#_x0000_t75" alt="Image result for fumarole yellowstone"
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<v:imagedata src="file:///C:/Users/STEPHA~1/AppData/Local/Temp/msohtmlclip1/01/clip_image003.jpg"
o:title="Image result for fumarole yellowstone"/>
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://www.nps.gov/yell/learn/nature/images/fumarole.jpg?maxwidth=1200&maxheight=1200&autorotate=false" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="267" data-original-width="800" height="106" src="https://www.nps.gov/yell/learn/nature/images/fumarole.jpg?maxwidth=1200&maxheight=1200&autorotate=false" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="SceneBreak">
<br /></div>
<div class="SceneBreak">
A fumarole (steam vent) field in Yellowstone, where dangerously
superheated steam emerges in the geyser basins. Credit: National Park Service
/Jim Peaco<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="SceneBreak">
<br /></div>
<div class="BookText">
WARNING: most of the hydrothermal features in Yellowstone,
and other active megacalderas, are DANGEROUSLY HOT. Not infrequently, these are
superheated waters, meaning their temperatures may well be above the boiling
temperature of water; this is especially true for geysers and fumaroles, but
many <span style="mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">— most —</span> hot
springs are also near boiling. More, at least at Yellowstone, they also are
prone to being highly acidic. It is NOT AN EXAGGERATION in the least to say
that entering one of these features means an instant, horrible death; it has
happened many times. Worse, sometimes bodies are not recovered, simply because
the water has become strongly acidic thanks to the sulfuric gases dissolved in
it; the corpses simply dissolve. When the bodies are recovered, they are often
in very poor condition. DO NOT EVEN THINK OF TRYING to use one as your personal
hot tub, and DO NOT LEAVE THE TRAILS/WALKWAYS, because the high mineral content
can form what LOOKS like solid ground, but is really a skim of mineral deposits
floating on the water’s surface.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="SceneBreak">
<br /></div>
<h3>
Is There Any Danger of Eruption?</h3>
<div class="unlinkedheader">
<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="BookText">
Yes, because this is an active volcanic feature; there has
been some uplift in areas of the park, especially under the lake, but given the
nature of the feature, and the high levels of seismic activity that occur there
normally, that isn’t necessarily anything to worry about. The “uplift” feature
on the lake floor seems to be part of an underwater field of hydrothermal
vents, fissures and faults, not unlike those found on ocean floors, so it is
likely that the uplift is a result of gases and expanding hot water underneath.
Certainly a good deal of the seismic activity in and around the caldera has to
do with this same hydrothermal activity; this expansion, when the water is in
the natural cracks of a rock stratum, will force the cracks wider until the
stone eventually breaks. This fracture does create small quakes.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="BookText">
<br /></div>
<div class="BookText">
So-called “quake swarms” in the region are NOT in the correct
area to indicate magma on the move. They also don’t have the “long-period
harmonic” vibrational component to indicate flowing magma. More, detailed
geophysical studies show no evidence of either magma chamber inflating.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="BookText">
<br /></div>
<div class="BookText">
To obtain a copy of <span class="BookTextItalicChar"><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi;"><i>Kiss
Your Ash Goodbye: The Yellowstone Supervolcano</i></span></span> by Stephanie
Osborn, go to: <span class="MsoHyperlink"><a href="file:///C:/Users/Stephanie/Documents/Documents/Writing/Chromosphere%20Press/Popular%20Science/Kiss%20Your%20Ash%20Goodbye/Blog%20articles/bit.ly/Kin-KYAGTYSV">bit.ly/Kin-KYAGTYSV</a></span>.<o:p></o:p></div>
<br />Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1587033750758554083.post-15927881092031014262018-09-18T03:00:00.000-05:002018-09-18T03:00:05.880-05:00Kiss Your Ash Goodbye: The Yellowstone Supervolcano, Part II, A Vulcanology Primer<br />
<div class="SceneBreak">
Excerpted from <span class="MsoHyperlink"><a href="file:///C:/Users/Stephanie/Documents/Documents/Writing/Chromosphere%20Press/Popular%20Science/Kiss%20Your%20Ash%20Goodbye/Blog%20articles/bit.ly/Kin-KYAGTYSV"><i>Kiss Your Ash Goodbye: The Yellowstone Supervolcano</i></a></span>,
© 2018<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="SceneBreak">
By Stephanie Osborn<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="SceneBreak">
<span class="MsoHyperlink"><a href="http://www.stephanie-osborn.com/">http://www.stephanie-osborn.com</a></span><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="SceneBreak">
Images in this article are public domain unless otherwise
noted.<o:p></o:p></div>
<h3>
<o:p> </o:p>How many supervolcanoes are there in North America?</h3>
<div class="unlinkedheader">
<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="BookText">
There are ~170 active volcanos in the United States of America,
most in Alaska and Hawaii, though there are quite a few along the West Coast
states.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="BookText">
<a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=1587033750758554083" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"></a><a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=1587033750758554083" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"></a><a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=1587033750758554083" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"></a><a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=1587033750758554083" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"></a><a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=1587033750758554083" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"></a><a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=1587033750758554083" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"></a><a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=1587033750758554083" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"></a><a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=1587033750758554083" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"></a><a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=1587033750758554083" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"></a><br /></div>
<div class="BookText">
There are only an estimated 4-5 supervolcanoes in the USA.
These include the Yellowstone Caldera (VEI:7-8), Mt. Mazama/Crater Lake
(considered dormant) (VEI:7), Valles Caldera (VEI:7), Long Valley Caldera
(VEI:7), La Garita Caldera (likely extinct) (VEI:8), with all except the last potentially
capable of erupting. There were more, but they appear to be extinct. Extinct is
relative, however; most show some degree of geothermal activity in the area.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="BookText">
<br /></div>
<h4>
Mt. Mazama/Crater Lake (VEI:7)</h4>
<div class="unlinkedheader">
<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="BookText">
The central feature of Crater Lake National Park is Mount
Mazama in southern Oregon. It is a composite volcano (a composite of
alternating layers of ash/cinder and lava) in the Cascade Volcanic Range of the
Pacific Northwest, which are fed by the subduction and subsequent melting of
the Pacific Ocean floor tectonic plates.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="BookText">
<br /></div>
<div class="BookText">
Prior to the caldera-forming eruption, Mazama stood at least ~12,000ft
(3,700m) in altitude. Post-eruption, it now has a maximum height of 8,934ft (2,723m)
at Mount Scott (2mi/3km east of the caldera rim), which is a parasitic cone on
the flank of the volcano. [Yes, that’s right, the caldera rim is some 800ft+
(240m+) lower.]<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="BookText">
<br /></div>
<div class="BookText">
The caldera rim proper ranges from 7,000-8,000ft (2,100-2,400m)
altitude, and is 5x6mi (8.0x9.7km) across. The bottom of Crater Lake goes
2,148ft (655m) down; it is the deepest lake in the U.S. The lake IS the
caldera, so that's at least how far it collapsed. Some say that the bottom is
near the base of the mountain, others that it goes even deeper.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="BookText">
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://pubs.usgs.gov/sim/2832/photos/1-Crater_Lake_Wizard_Island.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="533" data-original-width="800" height="213" src="https://pubs.usgs.gov/sim/2832/photos/1-Crater_Lake_Wizard_Island.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="BookText">
<br /></div>
<div class="SceneBreak" style="text-align: center;">
Crater Lake, the water-filled caldera of Mt. Mazama.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="SceneBreak">
<br /></div>
<div class="BookText">
In relatively continuous eruption since 420,000 years ago, things
changed around 30,000 years ago, when the chemistry of the melt feeding the
magma chamber apparently began to change from a relatively basaltic, runny
magma to a much more viscous, silica-rich melt. As this melt grew thicker, the
eruptions became more violent.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="BookText">
<br /></div>
<div class="BookText">
The catastrophic eruption occurred 7,700 years ago, and was
observed by the local Klamath indigenous people, who “recorded” it in myth. It
“...started from a single vent on the northeast side of the volcano as a
towering column of pumice and ash that reached some 30mi (50km) high. Winds
carried the ash across much of the Pacific Northwest and parts of southern
Canada...As the summit collapsed, circular cracks opened up around the peak.
More magma erupted through these cracks to race down the slopes as pyroclastic
flows. Deposits from these flows partially filled the valleys around Mount Mazama
with up to 300ft (100m) of pumice and ash. As more magma erupted, the collapse
progressed until the dust settled to reveal a caldera, 5mi (8km) in diameter
and 1mi (1.6km) deep.” ~USGS website<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="BookText">
<br /></div>
<div class="BookText">
Subsequent eruptions from vents inside the caldera created what
became Wizard Island, as snow- and glacier-melt slowly filled the depression.
Eventually eruption ceased, and the ruins of Mt. Mazama began to resemble the
beautiful Crater Lake we know today.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="BookText">
<br /></div>
<div class="BookText">
Mt. Mazama is officially considered dormant by the U.S. Geological
Society.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="BookText">
<br /></div>
<h4>
The Valles Caldera (VEI:7)</h4>
<div class="unlinkedheader">
<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="BookText">
Sometimes called the Jimez Caldera, this supervolcano is
located in northern New Mexico, 55mi (90km) north of Albuquerque. It is named
for the numerous grassland valleys (Spanish: valles) contained within the circular
caldera, which is about 13.7mi (22km) in diameter. It is similar to Yellowstone
in that the caldera also contains hot springs, fumaroles (steam vents), gas
vents, and volcanic domes, in addition to meadows and streams.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="BookText">
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://www.nps.gov/orgs/1207/images/VALL_ValleGrande.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="533" data-original-width="800" height="213" src="https://www.nps.gov/orgs/1207/images/VALL_ValleGrande.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="BookText">
<br /></div>
<div class="SceneBreak" style="text-align: center;">
The Valles Caldera as viewed from the rim. </div>
<div class="SceneBreak" style="text-align: center;">
Note the
volcanic domes dotting the floor.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="SceneBreak" style="text-align: center;">
Credit: National Parks Service.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="SceneBreak">
<br /></div>
<div class="BookText">
Geologically, it is one of the best-studied calderas in the
U.S. There are at least two known calderas on this site, the Valles, and the
older Toledo Caldera. The nearby and associated Cerros del Rio volcanic field
is older still, indicating multiple supereruptions at this site. Overall, these
and related nearby volcanic features are included within the Jemez Volcanic
Field & Mountain Range, which stretches across three counties in New
Mexico.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="BookText">
<br /></div>
<div class="BookText">
Several layers of silica-rich lava and tuff (welded ash) in
the region are ample proof of the eruptions, the most recent of which was some
50-60 thousand years ago and resulted in the current Valles caldera. Previous
eruptions date back at least 14 million years.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="BookText">
<br /></div>
<div class="BookText">
The cause of the vulcanism seems to be the intersection of
the Rio Grande Rift (a continental rift zone, running N-S from central Colorado
state, USA, to Chihuahua state, Mexico) and the Jemez Lineament (a series of
faults running E-W 600mi (965km) from Arizona east possibly as far as western
Oklahoma). The Valles Caldera does not, therefore, appear to be due to a
solitary mantle hotspot as such, but to rifting occurring in the middle of the
continental plate, though this rifting may be from convective uplift in the
mantle.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="BookText">
<br /></div>
<h4>
The Long Valley Caldera (VEI:7)</h4>
<div class="unlinkedheader">
<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="BookText">
The Long Valley Caldera is in central California along and
slightly east of the westernmost Sierra Nevada Range. It and the adjacent
Mammoth Mountain/Mono-Inyo complex are around 55mi (89km) northeast of Fresno,
California.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="BookText">
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<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/a/af/Long_Valley_caldera_NE_rim.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="500" data-original-width="800" height="200" src="https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/a/af/Long_Valley_caldera_NE_rim.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="BookText">
<br /></div>
<div class="SceneBreak" style="text-align: center;">
Part of the Long Valley Caldera, </div>
<div class="SceneBreak" style="text-align: center;">
looking east from the
north rim.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="BookText">
<br /></div>
<div class="BookText">
The caldera is ~20mi (32km) long, 10mi (16km) wide, and up to
3,000ft (910m) deep. It generated a massive supereruption some 760,000 years
ago, producing the Bishop Tuff formation. The grand total of ejecta was some
150cu.mi (625km3), after which the surface sank nearly a mile (1.6km) into what
had been the magma chamber.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="BookText">
<br /></div>
<div class="BookText">
The cause of the supereruption is unexplained; it is not
fueled by a mantle hotspot, nor is it provided melt via subduction.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="BookText">
<br /></div>
<div class="BookText">
More, while it is adjacent to still-active Mammoth Mountain
and the Mono-Inyo crater chain, and at least appears to be associated with
them, the magma chemistries are very different, indicating they do not share a
common melt system, and are NOT associated. This is an interesting puzzle.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="BookText">
<br /></div>
<div class="BookText">
“The caldera remains thermally active, with many hot springs
and fumaroles, and has had significant deformation, seismicity, and other
unrest in recent years.” ~USGS website<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="BookText">
<br /></div>
<div class="BookText">
The activity is sufficient to run a geothermal power plant
located there. But how much of this activity is due to the Mono/Mammoth complex
and how much to the caldera source is not fully understood. Smaller eruptions
have occurred around the caldera on a semi-regular long period, but the lava
extruded has apparently been increasingly crystalline in nature, which may
indicate that the magma source is cooling significantly.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="BookText">
<br /></div>
<h4>
La Garita/Creede Caldera (VEI:8)</h4>
<div class="unlinkedheader">
<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="BookText">
The La Garita caldera-forming eruption is estimated as one of
the largest eruptions on Earth. It lies in the midst of a huge region in the
Rocky Mountains called the San Juan Volcanic Fields. The town of Creede sits on
what would have been the north caldera rim, with Pueblo, Colorado 110-115mi
(km) east-northeast; Colorado Springs ~120mi (193km) northeast; Denver ~150mi
(240km) north-northeast.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="BookText">
<br /></div>
<div class="BookText">
This region became active some 35-40 million years ago, with
an exceptional period of activity from 30-35 million years ago. At the tail end
of this flurry of vulcanism, the La Garita supereruption took place, roughly 27
million years ago. It ejected some 1,200cu.mi. (5,000km<sup>3</sup>) of
material, which became known as the Fish Canyon Tuff. This ash deposit covered
an area of AT LEAST 11,000 sq.mi. (30,000km<sup>2</sup>) in a layer whose
average depth was 328ft (100m). This tuff is surprisingly uniform chemically, indicating
it was ejected all in a volume.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="BookText">
<br /></div>
<div class="BookText">
The resulting caldera was a monster 22mi (35km) wide, and
anywhere from 47-62mi (75-100km) long. It is no longer recognizable as such to
the untrained eye, however, as a single resurgent dome (Snowshoe Mountain) has
filled it.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="BookText">
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<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://volcanocafe.files.wordpress.com/2013/12/image011.jpg?w=700&h=462" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="462" data-original-width="700" height="211" src="https://volcanocafe.files.wordpress.com/2013/12/image011.jpg?w=700&h=462" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="BookText">
<br /></div>
<div class="SceneBreak" style="text-align: center;">
La Garita Caldera (red dotted outline), </div>
<div class="SceneBreak" style="text-align: center;">
with resurgent dome
(Snowshoe Mountain) inside it. </div>
<div class="SceneBreak" style="text-align: center;">
Credit: <span class="MsoHyperlink"><a href="http://elements.geoscienceworld.org/cgi/content-nw/full/4/1/17/FIG4">http://elements.geoscienceworld.org/cgi/content-nw/full/4/1/17/FIG4</a></span><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="BookText">
<br /></div>
<div class="BookText">
The energy of the eruption was some 5,000x the largest
nuclear device ever detonated on Earth, the Tsar Bomba, a 50MT explosive. This
places the La Garita supereruption at 250 GIGATONS of energy. The area
devastated would have encompassed a substantial portion of what is modern-day
Colorado, not counting ash fall.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="BookText">
<br /></div>
<div class="BookText">
Vulcanism in the San Juan Volcanic Field as a whole,
including the La Garita supervolcano, apparently ended 2.5 million years ago.
It is considered extinct.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="BookText">
<br /></div>
<h3>
What’s the strongest supervolcano ever known?</h3>
<div class="unlinkedheader">
<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="BookText">
The biggest known eruption in geologic history IN THE USA —
some say in the world — was the Fish Canyon eruption in the La Garita
megacaldera.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="BookText">
The biggest known eruption in geologic history in the WORLD
was the Guarapuava-Tamarana-Sarusas eruption in South America. The eruption
occurred ~132 million years ago, produced an estimated 2,100 cu. mi. (8,600 km<sup>3</sup>)
of ejecta, and was probably at least the equivalent of the La Garita eruption.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="BookText">
<br /></div>
<div class="BookText">
To obtain a copy of <span class="BookTextItalicChar"><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi;"><i>Kiss
Your Ash Goodbye: The Yellowstone Supervolcano</i></span></span> by Stephanie
Osborn, go to: <a href="http://bit.ly/Kin-KYAGTYSV">http://<span class="MsoHyperlink">bit.ly/Kin-KYAGTYSV</span></a>.<o:p></o:p></div>
<br />Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1587033750758554083.post-28930222048880014952018-09-11T03:00:00.000-05:002018-09-11T03:00:08.498-05:00Kiss Your Ash Goodbye: The Yellowstone Supervolcano, Part I, A Vulcanology Primer<br />
<div class="SceneBreak">
Excerpted from <span class="MsoHyperlink"><a href="file:///C:/Users/Stephanie/Documents/Documents/Writing/Chromosphere%20Press/Popular%20Science/Kiss%20Your%20Ash%20Goodbye/Blog%20articles/bit.ly/Kin-KYAGTYSV"><i>Kiss Your Ash Goodbye: The Yellowstone Supervolcano</i></a></span>,
© 2018<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="SceneBreak">
By Stephanie Osborn<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="SceneBreak">
<span class="MsoHyperlink"><a href="http://www.stephanie-osborn.com/">http://www.stephanie-osborn.com</a></span><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="SceneBreak">
Images in this article are public domain unless otherwise
noted.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="unlinkedheader">
<br /></div>
<h3>
What is a supervolcano?</h3>
<div class="unlinkedheader">
<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="BookText">
<a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=1587033750758554083" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"></a><a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=1587033750758554083" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"></a><a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=1587033750758554083" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"></a><a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=1587033750758554083" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"></a><a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=1587033750758554083" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"></a><a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=1587033750758554083" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"></a><a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=1587033750758554083" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"></a><a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=1587033750758554083" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"></a><a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=1587033750758554083" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"></a>“The term ‘supervolcano’ implies a volcanic center that has
had an eruption of magnitude 8 on the Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI), meaning
the measured deposits for that eruption is greater than 1,000 cubic kilometers
(240 cubic miles).” ~U.S. Geological Survey<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="BookText">
<br /></div>
<div class="BookText">
That said, often volcanic eruptions with a slightly lesser
VEI of 7 are also considered supervolcanic. This is because the VEI does not
take density of ejecta into account. Magma chemical composition varies,
depending upon the source of the melt. This can produce lava with varying
densities.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="SceneBreak">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://pubs.usgs.gov/sim/2832/photos/1-Crater_Lake_Wizard_Island.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="533" data-original-width="800" height="213" src="https://pubs.usgs.gov/sim/2832/photos/1-Crater_Lake_Wizard_Island.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
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<div style="text-align: center;">
<span class="SceneBreakChar">Crater Lake, in Mount Mazama, with Wizard Island
cinder cone</span>.</div>
<o:p></o:p><br />
<div class="BookText">
<br /></div>
<h3>
What is the Volcanic Explosivity Index?</h3>
<div class="unlinkedheader">
<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="BookText">
It is a means of ranking a volcanic eruption, similar to the
Richter or moment magnitude scales for earthquakes. According to the U.S.
Geological Survey, “The Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) is a relative measure
of the explosiveness of volcanic eruptions. It was devised by Chris Newhall of
the United States Geological Survey and Stephen Self at the University of
Hawaii in 1982.” It categorizes eruption characteristics, such as volume of
ejecta, eruption cloud height, etc. Again quoting the USGS, “The scale is
open-ended with the largest volcanic eruptions in history (super-eruptions)
given magnitude 8.” Since it is open-ended, some geologists do estimate that a
very small number of eruptions in geologic history may have reached a 9, though
such a rating is currently unofficial.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="BookText">
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh67DlNb2E1mORhK6Ctc-Ew0wazD1X6HBzRtdh9uL5bsN6lvYHcInve7OZQrEQDgzcmpgTD397J-xjFfTwn4kFBS7Wph4rYav0sRrZNlchnCw5iCjkodX_hWMk4P_gfo4FpIZmY7CzH2q4/s1600/VEI.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="244" data-original-width="467" height="207" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh67DlNb2E1mORhK6Ctc-Ew0wazD1X6HBzRtdh9uL5bsN6lvYHcInve7OZQrEQDgzcmpgTD397J-xjFfTwn4kFBS7Wph4rYav0sRrZNlchnCw5iCjkodX_hWMk4P_gfo4FpIZmY7CzH2q4/s400/VEI.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
</div>
<br />
<br />
<div class="SceneBreak" style="text-align: center;">
The Volcanic Explosivity Index.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="SceneBreak">
<br /></div>
<h3>
Are all supervolcanoes explosive?</h3>
<div class="unlinkedheader">
<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="BookText">
NO.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="BookText">
<br /></div>
<div class="BookText">
There are supervolcanoes known as “traps” which tend to be
nonexplosive. These are typically long cracks — sometimes fields of parallel
cracks — from which vast quantities of lava (“flood basalts”) flow over the
surrounding terrain. The term refers to the step-like terrain common to such
features. One of the best known in the geological community were the Deccan
Traps. This eruption occurred some 60 million years ago in the Deccan Plateau
region of what is now India. The residual lava beds originally may have covered
some 580,000sq.mi. (1.5million km²) <span style="mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">—</span>
more than 2x the size of Texas. Multiple flows over time covered the area in ~6,600ft
(2,000m) thick basalts. It is one of the largest volcanic features on Earth.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="BookText">
<br /></div>
<h3>
How strong is a supervolcano?</h3>
<div class="unlinkedheader">
<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="BookText">
That depends on the type of supervolcano and your definition
of “strong.” There are two types of supervolcano:<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="BookText">
<br /></div>
<div class="BookText">
1) Megacalderas, or “massive eruptions”:<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="BookText">
These are cliff-edged craters, usually (though not always)
NOT surrounded by a mountain, where the violence of the eruption emptied the
magma chamber. The overburden collapsed into the chamber, leaving a
sinkhole-like depression.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="BookText" style="text-indent: 0in;">
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<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/b/b1/Toba_zoom.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="600" data-original-width="800" height="240" src="https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/b/b1/Toba_zoom.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="BookText" style="text-indent: 0in;">
<br /></div>
<div class="SceneBreak" style="text-align: center;">
Lake Toba — the lake IS the caldera.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="SceneBreak">
<br /></div>
<div class="BookText">
2) Traps, or Large Igneous Provinces:<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="BookText">
As already mentioned, these are huge regions of lava flow
resulting from flood basalt eruptions, often hundreds or thousands of square
miles with volumes on order of millions of cubic miles. The lavas are normally
laid down in sequential eruptions over millions of years.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="BookText">
<br /></div>
<div class="BookText">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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<div class="BookText">
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<div style="text-align: center;">
Siberian Traps lava flow. <br />
Image credit Benjamin Black via USGS.</div>
<o:p></o:p><br />
<div class="BookText">
<br /></div>
<div class="BookText">
While traps are considered supervolcanoes, usually it is the
megacaldera which is being referenced, due to its violence.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="BookText">
<br /></div>
<h3>
What is the difference between traps and megacalderas?</h3>
<div class="unlinkedheader">
<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="BookText">
Traps tend to be effusive and megacalderas tend to be
eruptive. This is not always true but usually is. The difference lies in the
chemistry of the melt.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="BookText">
<br /></div>
<div class="BookText">
Effusive flows tend to have thin, runny lava (low viscosity),
usually basaltic in composition. Dissolved gases escape quickly. This produces
dramatic lava fountains and swift flows. Example: Kilauea.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="BookText">
<br /></div>
<div class="BookText">
Eruptive flows tend to have thick, viscous lava (high
viscosity), usually granitic in composition. Dissolved gases are held in the
melt.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Pressure builds, and an eruption
ensues when the containment (volcanic vent/neck/chamber) fails. Example: Mt.
St. Helens.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="BookText">
<br /></div>
<div class="BookText">
If the melt chemistry changes for any reason, a trap can
become eruptive, or a megacaldera can become effusive, at least temporarily.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="BookText">
<br /></div>
<h3>
How strong is a supervolcano? (Take two)</h3>
<div class="unlinkedheader">
<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="BookText">
When Mt. St. Helens erupted, it released thermal energy
equivalent to approximately 24 megatons (MT). 7 MT of this was expended in the
blast alone. The St. Helens eruption was a VEI 5.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="BookText">
<br /></div>
<div class="BookText">
As previously mentioned, the Volcano Explosivity Index is
logarithmic. A supervolcano eruption is VEI 7-8. This is 2-3 orders of
magnitude stronger than St. Helens. A supervolcano, therefore, would release an
estimated 2,400-24,000 MT (2.4-24 gigatons (GT)) of thermal energy. If we scale
the blast size up proportionally, this would result in a blast equivalent to
approximately 700 MT to 7 GT.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="BookText">
<br /></div>
<h3>
How many supervolcanoes exist?</h3>
<div class="unlinkedheader">
<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="BookText">
That depends on who you talk to, and what criteria they are using.
Some say as few as half a dozen, others as many as 20 or more.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="BookText">
<br /></div>
<div class="BookText">
Keep in mind, there may also be ocean-floor volcanos of which
we’re unaware.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="BookText">
<br /></div>
<h3>
A Partial List of Known Active/Dormant Supervolcanoes
Currently In Existence</h3>
<div class="unlinkedheader">
<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="BookText">
• Aira Caldera/Sakurajima, Kagoshima, Japan<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="BookText">
• Baekdu Mountain, China/North Korea border<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="BookText">
• Campi Flegri/Phlegraean Fields, Naples, Italy<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="BookText">
• Cerro Galan Caldera, Catamarca province, Argentina<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="BookText">
• Kurile Lake/Kurilskoye Lake, Kamchatka, Russia<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="BookText">
• La Pacana, Zapaleri tripoint, Chile/Bolivia/Argentina<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="BookText">
• Lake Toba, North Sumatra, Indonesia<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="BookText">
• Long Valley Caldera, Mammoth Mountain, California, USA
(south of Mono Lake)<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="BookText">
• Macauley Island, New Zealand<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="BookText">
• Mount Aso, Kumamoto Prefecture, Japan<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="BookText">
• Tambora, Sumbawa, Indonesia<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="BookText">
• Taupo Caldera, North Island, New Zealand<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="BookText">
• Thera/Santorini, Santorini, Greece<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="BookText">
• Valles Caldera, Santa Fe, New Mexico, USA<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="BookText">
• Yellowstone Caldera, Yellowstone National Park, Wyoming,
USA<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="BookText">
<br /></div>
<div class="BookText">
To obtain a copy of <span class="BookTextItalicChar"><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi;"><i>Kiss
Your Ash Goodbye: The Yellowstone Supervolcano</i></span></span> by Stephanie
Osborn, go to: <a href="http://bit.ly/Kin-KYAGTYSV">http://<span class="MsoHyperlink">bit.ly/Kin-KYAGTYSV</span></a>.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="BookText">
<br /></div>
<br />Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1587033750758554083.post-18097440595343950742016-09-29T21:00:00.000-05:002016-09-29T21:00:09.734-05:00Solar, Space, and Geomag Weather parts VI and VII and other thingsby Stephanie Osborn<br />
<a href="http://www.stephanie-osborn.com/">http://www.stephanie-osborn.com</a><br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
Okay, I'm a little bit behind on mirroring the posts here, guys; forgive me. I've been very busy with a new book release, which I'll talk about below.<br />
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://accordingtohoyt.files.wordpress.com/2016/09/reflecting-light.jpg?w=500" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="204" src="https://accordingtohoyt.files.wordpress.com/2016/09/reflecting-light.jpg?w=500" width="320" /></a></div>
<br />
<br />
But so here are parts VI and VII of the series, as found on Sarah Hoyt's blog, According to Hoyt:<br />
<br />
part VI: <a href="https://accordingtohoyt.com/2016/09/22/solar-space-and-geomagnetic-weather-part-vi-solar-earth-defcon-levels-by-stephanie-osborn/">https://accordingtohoyt.com/2016/09/22/solar-space-and-geomagnetic-weather-part-vi-solar-earth-defcon-levels-by-stephanie-osborn/</a><br />
<br />
part VII: <a href="https://accordingtohoyt.com/2016/09/29/solar-space-and-geomagnetic-weather-part-vii-the-carrington-event-by-stephanie-osborn/">https://accordingtohoyt.com/2016/09/29/solar-space-and-geomagnetic-weather-part-vii-the-carrington-event-by-stephanie-osborn/</a><br />
<br />
Feel free to post comments or questions there or here.<br />
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
~~~</div>
<br />
In addition, and despite the fearmongering of certain nigh-tabloid excuses for newspapers, we are currently experiencing MODERATE (not severe) geomagnetic storming as a result of the high-speed solar wind stream from a coronal hole.<br />
<br />
A coronal hole is never going to generate a geomagnetic superstorm, folks, I don't care what the reporters are saying. It requires a superflare producing a mammoth CME to generate such a superstorm. And yes, we are indeed currently experiencing moderate geomagnetic storming. The K index is at about 6. A superstorm would produce a K index of 9 (maxxed out). Residents of New England, the Great Lakes states, the northern Midwest, the extreme northern Pacific Northwest, Canada, Alaska, Greenland, Iceland, Scotland, the Nordic countries, northern Russia/Siberia, northern China, the northern Kamchatka peninsula, Tasmania, the southern island of New Zealand, and of course Antarctica, should all be on the lookout for aurorae tonight and possibly tomorrow night.<br />
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
~~~</div>
<br />
<a href="https://images-na.ssl-images-amazon.com/images/I/51Cde5h1rsL.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" height="200" src="https://images-na.ssl-images-amazon.com/images/I/51Cde5h1rsL.jpg" width="124" /></a>For those interested in a smidge more information, may I recommend <i><a href="https://www.amazon.com/The-Weather-There-Frightful-ebook/dp/B008JA00D0/ref=sr_1_16?ie=UTF8&qid=1341960341&sr=8-16&keywords=Stephanie+Osborn">The Weather Out There Is Frightful:</a> Solar/Space Weather and What It Means for the Earth and You</i>, available for Kindle.<br />
<br />
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<br />
<a href="https://images-na.ssl-images-amazon.com/images/I/51U7rTA2QUL.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="200" src="https://images-na.ssl-images-amazon.com/images/I/51U7rTA2QUL.jpg" width="128" /></a><br />
<br />
In addition, I have a new novel release. <i>Fear in the French Quarter</i> is the sixth book in the <i>Displaced Detective</i> series, and is available in <a href="https://www.amazon.com/dp/B01LZ878IG/">print</a>, <a href="https://www.amazon.com/dp/B01LZ878IG/">Kindle</a>, and Nook.<br />
<br />
If you are in the New Orleans area this weekend, come by the CONtraflow science fiction convention at the Airport Hilton! I'll be throwing a release party on Saturday night!<br />
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<br />
<a href="https://images-na.ssl-images-amazon.com/images/I/51vL-H7F0nL.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" height="200" src="https://images-na.ssl-images-amazon.com/images/I/51vL-H7F0nL.jpg" width="128" /></a><br />
<br />
Book 1 of the series, <i><a href="https://www.amazon.com/Case-Displaced-Detective-Arrival-ebook/dp/B0063XNLQ8/ref=la_B0026DM46M_1_7?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1475199036&sr=1-7">The Case of the Displaced Detective: The Arrival</a></i>, is currently on sale in ebook <br />
formats for $0.99.<br />
<a href="https://www.amazon.com/Stephanie%20Osborn/e/B0026DM46M/ref=la_B0026DM46M_pg_1?rh=n%3A283155%2Cp_82%3AB0026DM46M&sort=author-pages-popularity-rank&ie=UTF8&qid=1475199619">Books 2-4 of the series are also discounted.</a><br />
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<br />
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<br />
<br />
<a href="https://images-na.ssl-images-amazon.com/images/I/41d3irS7FfL.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="200" src="https://images-na.ssl-images-amazon.com/images/I/41d3irS7FfL.jpg" width="131" /></a>My very first novel, <i><a href="https://www.amazon.com/Burnout-mystery-Space-Shuttle-STS-281-ebook/dp/B002R59EOO/ref=la_B0026DM46M_1_9?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1475199036&sr=1-9">Burnout: The mystery of Space Shuttle STS-281</a></i>, which eerily predicted the Columbia disaster (being written, though not published, before that disaster), is also on sale in ebook formats for $0.99.<br />
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<br />Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1587033750758554083.post-45136495995046210132016-09-16T13:00:00.000-05:002016-09-16T13:00:30.049-05:00Solar, Space & Geomag Weather Part V and other thingsby Stephanie Osborn<br />
<a href="http://www.stephanie-osborn.com/">http://www.stephanie-osborn.com</a><br />
<br />
My days of the week are in order this week, and so I have been proactive in responding to comments at According to Hoyt, where Solar, Space, and Geomagnetic Weather, Part V went up:<br />
<br />
<a href="https://accordingtohoyt.com/2016/09/15/solar-space-and-geomagnetic-weather-part-v-solar-activity-and-the-activity-indices-by-stephanie-osborn/">https://accordingtohoyt.com/2016/09/15/solar-space-and-geomagnetic-weather-part-v-solar-activity-and-the-activity-indices-by-stephanie-osborn/</a><br />
<br />
Feel free to pop over there and leave a comment; I'll be checking and responding for a couple days yet. Or leave your comments here. I'll answer those too.<br />
<u><br /></u>
<u><b>Other stuff:</b></u><br />
<br />
1) Africa, Europe, Asia, Australia and extreme parts of eastern South America are watching a penumbral lunar eclipse of the harvest moon even as I type this. However, observers in North America will be unable to see it. However, "penumbral" means that the Moon is only passing through the outer edge of the Earth's shadow, so it won't look especially dark, just dimmer.<br />
<br />
<a href="https://www.timeanddate.com/eclipse/lunar/2016-september-16">https://www.timeanddate.com/eclipse/lunar/2016-september-16</a><br />
<br />
Slooh is covering it, and should have a video after the fact, for late viewers.<br />
<br />
<a href="http://live.slooh.com/stadium/live/the-full-harvest-moon-eclipse">http://live.slooh.com/stadium/live/the-full-harvest-moon-eclipse</a><br />
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2) The Sun is still cranking along; little has changed. However, on Sep 15, sunspot 2589 rotated around to the far side of the Sun. Another spot formed as it was rotating to the near side and has been numbered 2592. These may be the only two spot groups on the solar surface, though according to STEREO imagery, there may be one more small group on the far side. So things are moving toward spotless again. Whether it gets there or not this time remains to be seen.<br />
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There are a few coronal holes, but nothing that is yet in a very geoeffective position. And there have been no strong flares, and no Earth-directed CMEs produced. Consequently the geomagnetic field is quiescent.<br />
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<u><b>Book recommendations:</b></u><br />
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A bit more information, all in one place, on solar/space/geomagnetic weather, can be found in my book, <i>The Weather Out There Is Frightful</i>, <a href="https://www.amazon.com/The-Weather-There-Frightful-ebook/dp/B008JA00D0/ref=sr_1_16?ie=UTF8&qid=1341960341&sr=8-16&keywords=Stephanie+Osborn">available for Kindle</a>.<br />
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"Our Sun is an active star. It may even be a variable star. Sunspots, flares, coronal mass ejections, all are signs of its activity. What kind of effect does it have on Earth? Other than the occasional sunburn, could it be dangerous? Has it been dangerous in the past? What can we expect in the near future?"<br />
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<a href="https://images-na.ssl-images-amazon.com/images/I/51s98KtLFcL._SX321_BO1,204,203,200_.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" height="200" src="https://images-na.ssl-images-amazon.com/images/I/51s98KtLFcL._SX321_BO1,204,203,200_.jpg" width="129" /></a></div>
For those who like hard science fiction, perhaps combined with a hint of mystery, check out the first book in the <i>Displaced Detective</i> series, <i>The Case of the Displaced Detective: The Arrival</i>, <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Case-Displaced-Detective-Arrival/dp/1606191896/ref=tmm_pap_title_0?_encoding=UTF8&qid=&sr=">available in print and ebook</a>. (Yes, it is <a href="http://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/the-case-of-the-displaced-detective-stephanie-osborn/1112073210?ean=2940013630970">available for Nook</a>.)<br />
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"<i>The Case of the Displaced Detective: The Arrival</i> is a SF mystery in which brilliant hyperspatial physicist, Dr. Skye Chadwick, discovers there are alternate realities, often populated by those we consider only literary characters. Her pet research, Project: Tesseract, hidden deep under Schriever AFB, finds Continuum 114, where Sherlock Holmes was to have died along with Moriarty at the Reichenbach Falls. In a Knee-jerk reaction, Skye rescues Holmes, who inadvertently flies through the wormhole to our universe, while his enemy plunges to his death. Unable to go back without causing devastating continuum collapse, Holmes must stay in our world and adapt. Meanwhile, the Schriever AFB Dept of Security discovers a spy ring working to dig out the details of - and possibly sabotage - Project: Tesseract. Can Chadwick help Holmes come up to speed in modern investigative techniques in time to stop the spies? Will Holmes be able to thrive in our modern world? Is Chadwick now Holmes' new 'Watson' - or more? And what happens next?"<br />
<br />
<a href="https://images-na.ssl-images-amazon.com/images/I/51OJsJ3FmxL.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" height="200" src="https://images-na.ssl-images-amazon.com/images/I/51OJsJ3FmxL.jpg" width="128" /></a>This is an ongoing series; the first four books are collected in an ebook omnibus, <i><a href="https://www.amazon.com/Case-Displaced-Detective-Omnibus-ebook/dp/B00FOR5LJ4/">The Case of the Displaced Detective Omnibus</a></i>. The series has been described as, "Sherlock Holmes meets the X-Files." In addition to the mystery aspects of each story, I make use of extrapolations of cutting-edge scientific theory, such as M theory, cosmic strings, nanocarbon chemistry, room-temperature superconductors, and more.<br />
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Book 6 of the series, <i>Fear in the French Quarter</i>, is <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Fear-French-Quarter-Displaced-Detective/dp/1606192027/">available for pre-release</a> now. The official release date is October 5. More books are planned in the series.<br />
<br />
<a href="https://images-na.ssl-images-amazon.com/images/I/51dMrJckBBL._SX322_BO1,204,203,200_.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="200" src="https://images-na.ssl-images-amazon.com/images/I/51dMrJckBBL._SX322_BO1,204,203,200_.jpg" width="129" /></a>"<i>Fear in the French Quarter</i> revolves around a jaunt by no less than Sherlock Holmes himself -- brought to the modern day from an alternate universe's Victorian era by his continuum parallel, who is now his wife, Dr. Skye Chadwick- Holmes -- to famed New Orleans for both business and pleasure. There, the detective couple investigates ghostly apparitions, strange disappearances, mystic phenomena, and challenge threats to the very universe they call home.<br />
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"It was supposed to be a working holiday for Skye and Sherlock, along with their friend, the modern day version of Doctor Watson -- some federal training that also gave them the chance to explore New Orleans, as the ghosts of the French Quarter become exponentially more active. When the couple uncovers an imminently catastrophic cause, whose epicenter lies squarely in the middle of Le Vieux Carre, they must race against time to stop it before the whole thing breaks wide open -- and more than one universe is destroyed."<br />
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Have a look at some of my books, enjoy the science, maybe learn a few things...and above all, enjoy.<br />
<br />
-Stephanie Osborn<br />
<a href="http://www.stephanie-osborn.com/">http://www.stephanie-osborn.com</a>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1587033750758554083.post-47742965781438844732016-09-10T16:00:00.000-05:002016-09-10T16:00:23.910-05:00Solar, Space, & Geomag Weather part IV and Other Stuffby Stephanie Osborn<br />
<a href="http://www.stephanie-osborn.com/">http://www.stephanie-osborn.com</a><br />
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As I sit and sip my cafe au lait made from Cafe du Monde's signature chicory blend, I must note that I've been recalcitrant in posting lately. Sorry about that; I can only plead that I have been in the depths of a writing jag, and turning out word counts that are both consistent and high. I also totally hosed my reckoning of days of the week for this past week, thanks to the fact that Monday was a holiday.<br />
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So I am very late on this post. Please forgive me.<br />
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The latest installment of the <i>Solar, Space, and Geomagnetic Weather</i> series went up on Sarah Hoyt's blog, <i>According to Hoyt</i>, on schedule on Thursday. It's here:<br />
<a href="https://accordingtohoyt.com/2016/09/08/solar-space-and-geomagnetic-weather-part-iv-by-stephanie-osborn/">https://accordingtohoyt.com/2016/09/08/solar-space-and-geomagnetic-weather-part-iv-by-stephanie-osborn/</a><br />
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An announcement of my title, <i><a href="https://www.amazon.com/Sherlock-Holmes-Mummys-Stephanie-Osborn-ebook/dp/B017IX33NW/ref=asap_bc?ie=UTF8#nav-subnav">Sherlock Holmes and the Mummy's Curse</a><span id="goog_553579849"></span><span id="goog_553579850"></span><a href="https://www.blogger.com/"></a></i>, having won the Silver Falchion Award went up on Wednesday's <i>Mad Genius Club</i>, here:<br />
<a href="https://madgeniusclub.com/2016/09/07/sherlock-holmes-and-the-mummys-curse-wins-silver-falchion-award-stephanie-osborn/">https://madgeniusclub.com/2016/09/07/sherlock-holmes-and-the-mummys-curse-wins-silver-falchion-award-stephanie-osborn/</a><br />
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To purchase a copy in print or ebook, go here:<br /><a href="https://www.amazon.com/Sherlock-Holmes-Mummys-Stephanie-Osborn-ebook/dp/B017IX33NW/ref=asap_bc?ie=UTF8#nav-subnav">https://www.amazon.com/Sherlock-Holmes-Mummys-Stephanie-Osborn-ebook/dp/B017IX33NW/ref=asap_bc?ie=UTF8#nav-subnav</a><br />
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I'm still answering comments on both blogs, so feel free to pop over to either of those, or both, or leave comments here.<br />
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In addition, solar activity has been fairly quiet, this week-and-a-half into September that we are. Sunspots have been seen throughout, but they are somewhat sporadic and all clustered in the equatorial regions (as would be expected at this point in the solar cycle). There have been a few flares, but nothing of great significance, and no coronal mass ejections have been produced, though there was a "prominence eruption" on the 6th. A few coronal holes have generated enhanced solar wind streams that have produced minor to moderate geogmagnetic storming, and some high-latitude auroras.<br />
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And that's it. There really hasn't been any solar/space weather news of significance so far this month. Things remain quiet, but not unusually so, in the solar mechanisms.<br />
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<u>Other items:</u><br />
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Happy 50th birthday to <i>Star Trek</i>!<br />
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Condolences to SpaceX on the loss of their craft on the 1st.<br />
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We finally found the remains of the Philae comet lander:<br />
<a href="http://www.space.com/33971-lost-philae-comet-lander-finally-found-photos.html">http://www.space.com/33971-lost-philae-comet-lander-finally-found-photos.html</a><br />
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And that's about all I know, folks.<br />
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-Stephanie Osborn<br />
<a href="http://www.stephanie-osborn.com/">http://www.stephanie-osborn.com</a>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1587033750758554083.post-51439914518110404392016-09-01T14:00:00.000-05:002016-09-01T14:00:00.156-05:00Solar, Space, and Geomagnetic Weather, Part III, plus News<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">by Stephanie Osborn</span><br />
<a href="http://www.stephanie-osborn.com/"><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">http://www.stephanie-osborn.com</span></a><br />
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">Okay, first off, the third installment of my solar and space weather series has gone up over at Sarah Hoyt's blog, <a href="https://accordingtohoyt.com/2016/09/01/solar-space-and-geomagnetic-weather-part-iii-by-stephanie-osborn/">According to Hoyt</a>.</span><br />
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<a href="https://accordingtohoyt.files.wordpress.com/2016/09/aurorae.jpg?w=500" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="320" src="https://accordingtohoyt.files.wordpress.com/2016/09/aurorae.jpg?w=500" width="212" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">And <span style="background-color: white; line-height: 23.8px;"> </span><span style="background-color: white; line-height: 23.8px;">an interesting tidbit of information: Several sources are indicating that the cosmic ray influx is increasing. (E.g. see <a href="http://spaceweather.com/">SpaceWeather.com</a> for Sep 1, 2016: </span><span style="background-color: white;"><i>Cosmic Rays in the Atmosphere</i>.)</span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">Now, cosmic rays come in from outside our solar system. Mostly they are particulates, very high-energy charged particles produced in the various high-energy astronomical objects out there. They are very penetrating, and potentially dangerous to life, at least in large quantities. (Not that we are likely to get those large quantities; my point is simply that they ain’t good for ya.)</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">Normally the solar wind, coupled with the enhanced wind streams from coronas, and CMEs, create enough of a “resisting” effect to keep the cosmic ray flux at Earth fairly low. That said, this means that there is a variation in cosmic ray flux from solar max to solar min.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">But 1) we’re only about 2 years out from solar max. We should be 4-5 years away from solar min. 2) If we are indeed going into an extended minimum, then chances are the cosmic ray flux will be higher than at a “simple” solar min.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">Just something to keep an eye on.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><u><b>Additional news:</b></u></span></div>
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<li><span style="line-height: 23.8px;"><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">Africa saw an annular solar eclipse today. Nearly 97% of the Sun was covered by the Moon for observers in 50 African nations. SpaceWeather.com has a nice gallery of eclipse photography <a href="http://spaceweathergallery.com/eclipse_gallery.html">here</a>.</span></span></li>
</ul>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://spaceweather.com/images2016/01sep16/annular_strip.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://spaceweather.com/images2016/01sep16/annular_strip.png" height="186" width="200" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Photo from SpaceWeather.com<br />Annular solar eclipse seen from Reunion</td></tr>
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<li><span style="line-height: 23.8px;"><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">We are experiencing a G1 (minor) geomagnetic storm due to the enhanced wind stream from a coronal hole. High-latitude observers should keep a lookout for aurorae and other effects.</span></span></li>
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<li><span style="line-height: 23.8px;"><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">SpaceX's Falcon-9 blew up on the pad at Canaveral today; the rocket and its payload, a satellite owned by Facebook and intended to provide satellite internet capability, were total losses. CEO Elon Musk indicated that the problem "originated around the upper stage oxygen tank," during a static test on the pad. The launch had been planned for Saturday.</span></span></li>
</ul>
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<blockquote class="tr_bq" style="background-color: white; border: 0px; line-height: 23.8px; margin-bottom: 1.7em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="line-height: 23.8px;">CNN: </span><a href="http://money.cnn.com/video/news/2016/09/01/explosion-at-spacex-launch-pad-at-cape-canaveral.cnnmoney/index.html" style="line-height: 23.8px;">http://money.cnn.com/video/news/2016/09/01/explosion-at-spacex-launch-pad-at-cape-canaveral.cnnmoney/index.html</a><span style="background-color: transparent;"> </span></span></blockquote>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="line-height: 23.8px;">ABC: </span><a href="http://abcnews.go.com/Technology/video-captures-spacex-rocket-explosion-launch-site/story?id=41803090" style="line-height: 23.8px;">http://abcnews.go.com/Technology/video-captures-spacex-rocket-explosion-launch-site/story?id=41803090</a><span style="background-color: transparent;"> </span></span></blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq" style="background-color: white; border: 0px; line-height: 23.8px; margin-bottom: 1.7em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="line-height: 23.8px;">Business Insider: </span><a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-spacex-falcon-9-explosion-tweet-2016-9" style="line-height: 23.8px;">http://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-spacex-falcon-9-explosion-tweet-2016-9</a></span></blockquote>
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~<span style="font-family: Times, "Times New Roman", serif;">Stephanie Osborn</span><br />
<a href="http://www.stephanie-osborn.com/"><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">http://www.stephanie-osborn.com</span></a>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1587033750758554083.post-45086861623282858582016-08-26T14:00:00.000-05:002016-08-26T14:00:01.109-05:00Solar. Space & Geomagnetic Weather, part II<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">by Stephanie Osborn</span><br />
<a href="http://www.stephanie-osborn.com/"><span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">http://www.stephanie-osborn.com</span></a><br />
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span>
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://accordingtohoyt.files.wordpress.com/2016/08/greatbigloops.jpg?w=500" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="257" src="https://accordingtohoyt.files.wordpress.com/2016/08/greatbigloops.jpg?w=500" width="320" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">And part II of the Solar, Space & Geomagnetic Weather series has gone up on Sarah Hoyt's <i>According to Hoyt </i>blog, right here:</span><br />
<a href="https://accordingtohoyt.com/2016/08/26/15490/#comment-390024"><span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">https://accordingtohoyt.com/2016/08/26/15490/</span></a><br />
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">Feel free to leave comments here or there.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">BOOK RECOMMENDATIONS:</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><i><a href="https://www.amazon.com/The-Weather-There-Frightful-ebook/dp/B008JA00D0/ref=sr_1_16?ie=UTF8&qid=1341960341&sr=8-16&keywords=Stephanie+Osborn#nav-subnav">The Weather Out There Is Frightful</a>: Solar/Space Weather and What It Means to the Earth and You</i></span><br />
<a href="https://images-na.ssl-images-amazon.com/images/I/51Cde5h1rsL.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="200" src="https://images-na.ssl-images-amazon.com/images/I/51Cde5h1rsL.jpg" width="124" /></a><span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; line-height: 22.4px;"><span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">Our Sun is an active star. It may even be a variable star. Sunspots, flares, coronal mass ejections, all are signs of its activity. What kind of effect does it have on Earth? Other than the occasional sunburn, could it be dangerous? Has it been dangerous in the past? What can we expect in the near future?</span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; line-height: 22.4px;"><span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; line-height: 22.4px;"><span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><a href="https://www.amazon.com/The-Weather-There-Frightful-ebook/dp/B008JA00D0/ref=sr_1_16?ie=UTF8&qid=1341960341&sr=8-16&keywords=Stephanie+Osborn#nav-subnav">Click here</a> to purchase.</span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; line-height: 22.4px;"><span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; line-height: 22.4px;"><span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">Silver Falchion Award Winner:</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><i><a href="https://www.amazon.com/Sherlock-Holmes-Mummys-Curse-Gentleman/dp/1518883125/ref=sr_1_3_twi_pap_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1446569718&sr=8-3&keywords=sherlock+holmes+and+the+mummy%27s+curse">Sherlock Holmes and the Mummy's Curse</a></i></span><br />
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<a href="https://images-na.ssl-images-amazon.com/images/I/51oEfcw7%2B2L._SX331_BO1,204,203,200_.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="200" src="https://images-na.ssl-images-amazon.com/images/I/51oEfcw7%2B2L._SX331_BO1,204,203,200_.jpg" width="133" /></a><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; line-height: 22.4px;"><span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">Holmes and Watson. Two names forever linked by mystery and danger from the beginning. Within the first year of their friendship and while both are young men, Holmes and Watson are still finding their way in the world, with all the troubles that such young men usually have: Financial straits, troubles of the female persuasion, hazings, misunderstandings between friends, and more. Watson’s Afghan wounds are still tender, his health not yet fully recovered, and there can be no consideration of his beginning a new practice as yet. Holmes, in his turn, is still struggling to found the new profession of consulting detective. Not yet truly established in London, let alone with the reputations they will one day possess, they are between cases and at loose ends when Holmes' old professor of archaeology contacts him. Professor Willingham Whitesell makes an appeal to Holmes’ unusual skill set and a request. Holmes is to bring Watson to serve as the dig team’s physician and come to Egypt at once to translate hieroglyphics for his prestigious archaeological dig. There in the wilds of the Egyptian desert, plagued by heat, dust, drought and cobras, the team hopes to find the very first Pharaoh. Instead, they find something very different... </span></span><br />
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; line-height: 22.4px;"><span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">Noted Author Stephanie Osborn (Creator of the <i>Displaced Detective </i>series) presents the first book in her <i>Sherlock Holmes, Gentleman Aegis </i>series – <i><a href="https://www.amazon.com/Sherlock-Holmes-Mummys-Curse-Gentleman/dp/1518883125/ref=sr_1_3_twi_pap_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1446569718&sr=8-3&keywords=sherlock+holmes+and+the+mummy%27s+curse">Sherlock Holmes and the Mummy’s Curse</a>,</i> the debut volume of Pro Se Productions’ Holmes Apocrypha imprint.</span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; line-height: 22.4px;"><span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; line-height: 22.4px;"><span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><a href="https://www.amazon.com/Sherlock-Holmes-Mummys-Curse-Gentleman/dp/1518883125/ref=sr_1_3_twi_pap_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1446569718&sr=8-3&keywords=sherlock+holmes+and+the+mummy%27s+curse">Click here</a> to purchase.</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">~Stephanie Osborn</span><br />
<a href="http://www.stephanie-osborn.com/"><span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">http://www.stephanie-osborn.com</span></a>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1587033750758554083.post-55527894897429966492016-08-24T17:30:00.000-05:002016-08-24T17:30:04.313-05:00SURPRISE!!!by Stephanie Osborn<br />
<a href="http://www.stephanie-osborn.com/">http://www.stephanie-osborn.com</a><br />
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I am thrilled to announce that the first book of the <i>Gentleman Aegis</i> series, <i><a href="https://www.amazon.com/Sherlock-Holmes-Mummys-Curse-Gentleman/dp/1518883125/ref=sr_1_3_twi_pap_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1446569718&sr=8-3&keywords=sherlock+holmes+and+the+mummy%27s+curse">Sherlock Holmes and the Mummy's Curse</a></i>, has <b>WON</b> the <b>2016 </b><a href="http://www.killernashville.com/2016-killer-nashville-silver-falchion-finalists/"><b>Silver Falchion Award for Best "Nonfiction"</b> (read: historical fiction) <b>YA Book</b>!</a><br />
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<a href="https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/f/f1/Killer_Nashville_Silver_Falchion_Award_Winner.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="200" src="https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/f/f1/Killer_Nashville_Silver_Falchion_Award_Winner.png" width="200" /></a></div>
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The award is sponsored by the <a href="http://www.killernashville.com/">Killer Nashville</a> mystery convention!<br />
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I'm SO EXCITED!!!<br />
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~Stephanie Osborn<br />
<a href="http://www.stephanie-osborn.com/">http://www.stephanie-osborn.com</a><br />
<br />Unknownnoreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1587033750758554083.post-66042020247113976712016-08-23T23:00:00.000-05:002016-08-23T23:00:09.426-05:00AURORA ALERT 23/24 August 2016<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">by Stephanie Osborn</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><a href="http://www.stephanie-osborn.com/">http://www.stephanie-osborn.com</a></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">According to the various solar/geomagnetic data (collected in one convenient place by <a href="http://www.solarham.net/">SolarHam.com</a>; I actively support them with contributions), we are currently experiencing minor geomagnetic storming. This is likely being caused by a combination of a favorably-oriented local interplanetary magnetic field, as well as an enhanced wind stream from a coronal hole.</span><br />
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiWWje9kBTvqW0uPXqiRPC69VexXqZC-FiKYkK8Azck3UGfGn4E1SSH9j1nvQQGiSDHJfPvofWitfudF_NsRuT2RbBc47r08Eg2sCzMBPxVNPnuMOgPZ-hO0-v6Apz1maPzojWuZCCJSW4/s1600/coronal+hole+SDO+23+Aug+16.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="200" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiWWje9kBTvqW0uPXqiRPC69VexXqZC-FiKYkK8Azck3UGfGn4E1SSH9j1nvQQGiSDHJfPvofWitfudF_NsRuT2RbBc47r08Eg2sCzMBPxVNPnuMOgPZ-hO0-v6Apz1maPzojWuZCCJSW4/s200/coronal+hole+SDO+23+Aug+16.jpg" width="200" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: 12.8px;">This is a Solar Dynamics Observatory image </span><br />
<span style="font-size: 12.8px;">from 23 August 2016. It depicts the coronal holes </span><br />
<span style="font-size: 12.8px;">on that date (yesterday). Holes were numbered by </span><br />
<span style="font-size: 12.8px;">SolarHam. Coronal Hole #07 likely produced the</span><br />
<span style="font-size: 12.8px;">solar wind stream creating the current geomag storming.</span></td></tr>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">The planetary K-index is a NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) product created using magnetometers around the world. <a href="http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/planetary-k-index" target="_blank">According to the SWPC</a>, "<span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; line-height: 19.8px;">The K-index quantifies disturbances in the horizontal component of earth's magnetic field with an integer in the range 0-9 with 1 being calm and 5 or more indicating a geomagnetic storm. It is derived from the maximum fluctuations of horizontal components observed on a magnetometer during a three-hour interval. The planetary 3-hour-range index Kp is the mean standardized K-index from 13 geomagnetic observatories between 44 degrees and 60 degrees northern or southern geomagnetic latitude. The label 'K' comes from the German word 'Kennziffer' meaning 'characteristic digit.' The K-index was introduced by Julius Bartels in 1938. SWPC has used the K-index since the forecast center began operations." </span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; line-height: 19.8px;">Any time the K-index reaches 5, geomagnetic storming is occurring. We have been experiencing K=5 for at least 9 hours at the time of this writing.</span></span><br />
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhm9lruGjeZNDVPRQD9FMQ3TjZfnAIX1ZJRInsnoAUCy2kzrGlBwcSJlzJnzBz5poMYaw6hwWDbGjF1WwAF9Opu5X1m3bqm_EUwj7wC2AYx1cp5WcJxhoRle3jiZp2Rw67yIqGJuKnR2uU/s1600/planetary-k-index+24+Aug+16.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhm9lruGjeZNDVPRQD9FMQ3TjZfnAIX1ZJRInsnoAUCy2kzrGlBwcSJlzJnzBz5poMYaw6hwWDbGjF1WwAF9Opu5X1m3bqm_EUwj7wC2AYx1cp5WcJxhoRle3jiZp2Rw67yIqGJuKnR2uU/s320/planetary-k-index+24+Aug+16.gif" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">K-index graph captured as of approximately 10:25pm CDT, 23 Aug 2016.</td></tr>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; line-height: 19.8px;">The higher the K-index, the farther away from the geomagnetic poles the aurora can be seen, and the more effects can be seen. Generally coronal hole wind streams produce only minor storming; it takes a moderate to strong coronal mass ejection (CME) impact to reach the upper levels of the K-index.</span></span><br />
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEglmrg-6KJrWvCjVhvcqmJDVz3z_Xo1RaqfPk1U-gAtUr0ImLiHQGyU5FjyijrdVAaNlqM4GP43cOodSL1YAED_BkKJDerc_xRK5jmPyPbXziRD4WDv0iRLd4oXS0HKj2P8t3NGznwGnqc/s1600/NOAA+Geomagnetic+Storm+Scale.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="230" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEglmrg-6KJrWvCjVhvcqmJDVz3z_Xo1RaqfPk1U-gAtUr0ImLiHQGyU5FjyijrdVAaNlqM4GP43cOodSL1YAED_BkKJDerc_xRK5jmPyPbXziRD4WDv0iRLd4oXS0HKj2P8t3NGznwGnqc/s400/NOAA+Geomagnetic+Storm+Scale.jpg" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">The NOAA SWPC Geomagnetic Storm Scale.</td></tr>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; line-height: 19.8px;">We are currently experiecing a G1 Minor geomagnetic storm.</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; line-height: 19.8px;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; line-height: 19.8px;">It takes something around an X-class flare producing a large, strong CME to hit an 8-9 on the K-index scale, and that's up around Carrington-event class. So we aren't going to have anything like that, but higher latitudes might have a nice aurora tonight or the next few nights.</span></span><br />
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<span style="color: #222222; font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="background-color: white; line-height: 19.8px;">Here are maps (posted to SolarHam, but obtained from NOAA SWPC) that will show you where aurorae are possible. Find the line marked Kp=5 for our current condition, then look from that line poleward. If you are in that region, keep a watch out for aurorae. If you are near but outside the region, keep an eye peeled poleward, just in case.</span></span><br />
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjDOv67uMJre4hOqcX9JaMKRe7_bv9hcr8ZttNyYfQYLsRdiAAiqiPC_teTQF1028wHWfFM3cbcFZqNdbb6UQuLZ_66orE03dQYxyupvqTTxN1rSJG2E3ZV0ulTkha51QMoS3hrZ2mwU70/s1600/k+index+map+NAm.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="295" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjDOv67uMJre4hOqcX9JaMKRe7_bv9hcr8ZttNyYfQYLsRdiAAiqiPC_teTQF1028wHWfFM3cbcFZqNdbb6UQuLZ_66orE03dQYxyupvqTTxN1rSJG2E3ZV0ulTkha51QMoS3hrZ2mwU70/s400/k+index+map+NAm.jpg" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">K-index map of North America.</td></tr>
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjAEtltT_CihCULGxYgdWeAaCSLBD56-fvbHdJjS5TBbmbEAiIuIqe1d52ADBuMqEeyt39MQAWx675NlbYpcGGY-tJNnHTWJIt3KhyU575XrdvNCkmyw2GqBSr9NrNfM2eq6OyULa08Ahg/s1600/K+index+Map+SAm.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="200" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjAEtltT_CihCULGxYgdWeAaCSLBD56-fvbHdJjS5TBbmbEAiIuIqe1d52ADBuMqEeyt39MQAWx675NlbYpcGGY-tJNnHTWJIt3KhyU575XrdvNCkmyw2GqBSr9NrNfM2eq6OyULa08Ahg/s400/K+index+Map+SAm.png" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">K-index map of South America/Antarctica.</td></tr>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhwioZI3nY7Uev31W83Ufv7d3theHyrTcM4HDLlmTiVOo87wzA3E4mV6tkU8tdhrmRlLJayNW9FLGnhGQR78Rl5qiZxWUPA42ebvxgbpbU_B2dj3jfseUsS7wVsinMGDOs9vVlOTw6l_O0/s1600/K+index+map+Eurasia.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="200" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhwioZI3nY7Uev31W83Ufv7d3theHyrTcM4HDLlmTiVOo87wzA3E4mV6tkU8tdhrmRlLJayNW9FLGnhGQR78Rl5qiZxWUPA42ebvxgbpbU_B2dj3jfseUsS7wVsinMGDOs9vVlOTw6l_O0/s400/K+index+map+Eurasia.gif" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">K-index map of Eurasia.</td></tr>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhVrJbBPagCFSGvzPAHicF3mVT9gtB_zwqzfj2E15Bmbt7ZhGkMFYlXqcbPi372cd37fy9ZasO5xXi3HnT5TZxjVcOPrmya3P1IFsIMgvF5uR6N8s-CZS1Xs_w3tAif6RNcBWNs24oFvxY/s1600/K+index+map+australasia.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="212" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhVrJbBPagCFSGvzPAHicF3mVT9gtB_zwqzfj2E15Bmbt7ZhGkMFYlXqcbPi372cd37fy9ZasO5xXi3HnT5TZxjVcOPrmya3P1IFsIMgvF5uR6N8s-CZS1Xs_w3tAif6RNcBWNs24oFvxY/s400/K+index+map+australasia.jpg" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">K-index map of Australia/extreme South Pacific.</td></tr>
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<span style="color: #222222; font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="background-color: white; line-height: 19.8px;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="color: #222222; font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="background-color: white; line-height: 19.8px;">Good viewing!</span></span><br />
<span style="color: #222222; font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="background-color: white; line-height: 19.8px;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="color: #222222; font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="background-color: white; line-height: 19.8px;">~</span></span><span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">Stephanie Osborn</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><a href="http://www.stephanie-osborn.com/">http://www.stephanie-osborn.com</a></span><br />
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<span style="color: #222222; font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="background-color: white; line-height: 19.8px;"><br /></span></span>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1587033750758554083.post-37765572197586980152016-08-22T14:30:00.000-05:002016-08-22T14:30:26.947-05:00Some Solar Updatesby Stephanie Osborn<br />
<a href="http://www.stephanie-osborn.com/">http://www.stephanie-osborn.com</a><br />
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Just a few tidbits today, guys.<br />
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FYI we had another spotless couple days. Scarcely two, but there was nothing yesterday and today there is a spot rotating around from the far side. According to the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center there is one already on the near side continuing to decay — yet it doesn't show up — and the one rotating to the near side is one that rotated completely around. Judging by the STEREO imagery, however, there isn't another spot on the entire solar surface.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh9r4-QVi_0GKp5H63EeiuP-CErGqb2zmSpwIEF7uU7Ro22m9-CuiaiB8D-GJXE6ACtxhKTF_Z6U8N_5t9Yxg6hFbwrEpZk_3r5lHFs4q9K89fpAjy573AcMWdt_QoD5DXA_k32_ZCxJ-U/s1600/regions_aug22.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="200" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh9r4-QVi_0GKp5H63EeiuP-CErGqb2zmSpwIEF7uU7Ro22m9-CuiaiB8D-GJXE6ACtxhKTF_Z6U8N_5t9Yxg6hFbwrEpZk_3r5lHFs4q9K89fpAjy573AcMWdt_QoD5DXA_k32_ZCxJ-U/s200/regions_aug22.jpg" width="200" /></a></div>
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That said, there are some interesting magnetic field patterns in the inner corona in the Solar Dynamics Observatory's 211b channel, and that might indicate where the mysterious unseen spot group is supposed to be. Have a look at this image and look just over coronal hole 07, and you'll see it:<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgMHqzOtYu73XridlnA312jUoIWcUgndsH4sA5h2YMRNozlK3TifrrwrPLaG2v45QNo_IpKBqgE9yVJ5guXgLSuWSUDMQCorbjkqAFL92svHWqJGFHb3qUL0fnC0iVrRqUojQo0Llud-sM/s1600/ch+211+SDO+coronal+holes+22+Aug+16.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="200" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgMHqzOtYu73XridlnA312jUoIWcUgndsH4sA5h2YMRNozlK3TifrrwrPLaG2v45QNo_IpKBqgE9yVJ5guXgLSuWSUDMQCorbjkqAFL92svHWqJGFHb3qUL0fnC0iVrRqUojQo0Llud-sM/s200/ch+211+SDO+coronal+holes+22+Aug+16.jpg" width="200" /></a></div>
<br />
<br />
Said SDO channel image also shows the coronal holes, but they're moderate currently. We had a passage through an enhanced solar wind stream from one over the weekend, but it wasn't impressive and only mildly unsettled the geomagnetic field.<br />
<br />
This magnetogram (also from SDO) shows that, plus the group rotating around, plus ANOTHER that also isn't showing up.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjCiLcw37pfn09C_UbtYrignPa9OY3g_csgBl9RaE13IMk3gRbVJXq1u2mP6kb4cmkJodpaqYc8VtV9DVTDxANP2oHu5imQami-4Pruu5qSzmIVDtXe_PtAe2IciJALdeXM3YK0sRTizYc/s1600/latest_1024_HMIB.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="200" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjCiLcw37pfn09C_UbtYrignPa9OY3g_csgBl9RaE13IMk3gRbVJXq1u2mP6kb4cmkJodpaqYc8VtV9DVTDxANP2oHu5imQami-4Pruu5qSzmIVDtXe_PtAe2IciJALdeXM3YK0sRTizYc/s200/latest_1024_HMIB.jpg" width="200" /></a></div>
<br />
<br />
So yes, there's some activity, but it isn't a lot.<br />
<br />
<br />
<b>BOOK RECOMMENDATION:</b><br />
<a href="https://images-na.ssl-images-amazon.com/images/I/51Cde5h1rsL.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="200" src="https://images-na.ssl-images-amazon.com/images/I/51Cde5h1rsL.jpg" width="124" /></a><i><a href="https://www.amazon.com/The-Weather-There-Frightful-ebook/dp/B008JA00D0/ref=sr_1_16?ie=UTF8&qid=1341960341&sr=8-16&keywords=Stephanie+Osborn" target="_blank">The Weather Out There Is Frightful: Solar/Space Weather and What It Means for the Earth and You</a></i><br />
<br />
Our Sun is an active star. It may even be a variable star. Sunspots, flares, coronal mass ejections, all are signs of its activity. What kind of effect does it have on Earth? Other than the occasional sunburn, could it be dangerous? Has it been dangerous in the past? What can we expect in the near future?<br />
<br />
<b><br /></b>
<b><br /></b>
<b><br /></b>
<b><br /></b>
<b><br /></b>
<b>OFF-TOPIC ADDENDUM:</b><br />
With any luck, while it isn't about solar/space weather, I should have some exciting news for my fans sometime this week!<br />
<br />
~Stephanie Osborn<br />
<a href="http://www.stephanie-osborn.com/">http://www.stephanie-osborn.com</a>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1587033750758554083.post-55169690836215762302016-08-18T16:30:00.000-05:002016-08-18T16:30:09.273-05:00Link to Guest Blog Seriesby Stephanie Osborn<br />
<a href="http://www.stephanie-osborn.com/">http://www.stephanie-osborn.com</a><br />
<br />
Just a quick note: Upon request (both from readers and Sarah), I have begun a series on solar, space, and geomagnetic weather on According to Hoyt. The first installment posted today. Future installments should post every Thursday for the next couple of months. I'll try to ensure that a new post goes up here to link my blog readers to it, also.<br />
<br />
Here's the link:<br />
<a href="https://accordingtohoyt.com/2016/08/18/solar-space-and-geomagnetic-weather-part-i-an-introduction-by-stephanie-osborn/">https://accordingtohoyt.com/2016/08/18/solar-space-and-geomagnetic-weather-part-i-an-introduction-by-stephanie-osborn/</a>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1587033750758554083.post-24074444057636742072016-08-16T12:30:00.000-05:002016-08-16T16:22:04.614-05:00An Op-Ed Guest Post<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">Today, please welcome my old NASA colleague, Larry Bauer. Currently retired, he and I worked numerous Shuttle missions together as payload flight controllers.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">~Stephanie Osborn</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><a href="http://www.stephanie-osborn.com/">http://www.stephanie-osborn.com</a></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span>
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">* * *</span></div>
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><b>A Few Observations on
Reusable Space Hardware,<o:p></o:p></b></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">or<b> Why the Space Shuttle was
an engineering masterpiece and a logistical nightmare.<o:p></o:p></b></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><b>by Larry Bauer</b><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">The National Space
Transportation System, or what people commonly refer to as the Space Shuttle, was
composed of four parts: the Shuttle itself, the three Shuttle main engines, the
External Tank, and two Solid Rocket Boosters. In theory everything but the tank
and its fuel were recoverable.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">I was reminded of this when I
saw an article noting the sixth successful landing of a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket
after the successful launch of the JCSAT-16 commercial communications
satellite.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">From a purely economical
aspect it all comes down to what is the cheapest means to launch a payload into
a desired orbit. On the face of it reusing hardware only makes sense. However
there are a good many factors that mitigate against such as assumption.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">With NSTS we salvaged
everything except the ET. The Shuttle and engines landed and the SRB shells
parachuted back into the sea for recovery. In theory maximum reuse of critical
hardware. But let's look first at those boosters. They were made in sections
far from the launch site, built and filled in sections so they could be
transported by barge to Kennedy Space Center. From a logistics standpoint it
would have made much more sense to build them as a single tube and fill them
with solid propellant right there at the launch site. However that was not an
option. The state of Florida would allow launches from KSC, but they refused
permission to build the SRBs there. The solid propellant is nasty stuff and the
process of filling the boosters violated too many state pollution restrictions.
So the SRBs were built and filled originally by Thiokol of Brigham City, Utah,
later bought out by ATK. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">I will note that the recovery
and remanufacture of the boosters was very cost- and labor-intensive, and there
was always a debate over whether a cheaper throw-away design might have been
more cost effective. I will also point out that a design incorporating a single
continuous tube would have made the failure that caused the Challenger disaster
impossible. Which does not mean something equally tragic might not have
happened, but you cannot have a joint failure if there are no joints.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<a href="http://www.dallasnews.com/incoming/20160128-space_shuttle_challenger_30th_anniversary_photo_ga_48470781.jpg.ece/BINARY/SPACE_SHUTTLE_CHALLENGER_30TH_ANNIVERSARY_PHOTO_GA_48470781.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://www.dallasnews.com/incoming/20160128-space_shuttle_challenger_30th_anniversary_photo_ga_48470781.jpg.ece/BINARY/SPACE_SHUTTLE_CHALLENGER_30TH_ANNIVERSARY_PHOTO_GA_48470781.JPG" height="215" width="320" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">The high-performance Space
Shuttle Main Engines, known as SSMEs or the Aerojet Rocketdyne RS-25, are an
example where reuse of hardware only makes good sense. These are the pinnacle
of the state of the art for liquid fuel rocket engines. With the help of the
solid boosters, these engines, sucking immense quantities of liquid hydrogen and
oxygen from the External Tank, could lift a combined vehicle and payload weight
of roughly 2060 tons. Bringing these highly intricate and fine-tuned engines
back for reuse only made sense.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></div>
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<a href="https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/1/16/STS122_Atlantis.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="320" src="https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/1/16/STS122_Atlantis.jpg" width="211" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">And that does lead me to the
subject of a rather controversial opinion of mine. As magnificent an
engineering achievement as the NSTS was — and I spent the majority of my career
at NASA doing ground support to on-orbit experiment operations so I have a
great fondness for the beastie — the reason why it was a huge logistics failure
rests in the numbers. The shuttle itself weighed in at 2030 tons. Its payload
was 30 tons. The NSTS was a true heavy lift rocket, but most of what should
have been useful payload mass to orbit was spent instead on creating the ability
to land sort of like an airplane. A requirement imposed, by the way, by the Air
Force — who withdrew from the project between the time the design was firmed up
and the first launch. I will also observe that every astronaut pilot I've ever
spoken with all described the shuttle as “that flying brick.” [I can confirm
that astronaut description. —Steph]<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
<br />
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">And all of the above is
explanation as to why we don't see any shuttle-like designs these days. It is ever
so much more efficient to make as much of the upmass be useful payload as
possible, with the crew compartment just sufficiently robust to carry the
astronauts up and get them back to Earth safely.</span><span style="font-size: 14pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">* * *</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">Thanks much for that information, Larry! It squares pretty nicely with what I know of the various programs, as well.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<a href="https://images-na.ssl-images-amazon.com/images/I/51X3ZsNXL5L._SX329_BO1,204,203,200_.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" height="200" src="https://images-na.ssl-images-amazon.com/images/I/51X3ZsNXL5L._SX329_BO1,204,203,200_.jpg" width="132" /></a><span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">BOOK RECOMMENDATION:</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><i><a href="https://www.amazon.com/Rocket-City-Rednecks-American-Space/dp/1451638655/ref=sr_1_12?ie=UTF8&qid=1335238508&sr=8-12" target="_blank">A New American Space Plan</a></i>, by Travis S. Taylor with Stephanie Osborn, available in print and ebook, discusses the history of space exploration, where we are, how we got there, and where we ought to be and be going. You can find a lot more detail on the Space Shuttle, how it worked, the main engines and how the whole system was designed, right in this book. There's also a good bit about the recent efforts to develop commercial space launch systems and why the epithet "commercial" is often a misnomer.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></div>
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">~Stephanie Osborn</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><a href="http://www.stephanie-osborn.com/">http://www.stephanie-osborn.com</a></span>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com14tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1587033750758554083.post-48899015150846528272016-08-12T12:30:00.000-05:002016-08-12T12:30:25.279-05:00A Couple Quick Updates<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">by Stephanie Osborn</span><br />
<a href="http://www.stephanie-osborn.com/"><span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">http://www.stephanie-osborn.com</span></a><br />
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><b>SOLAR UPDATE:</b></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">The Sun has definitely awakened for the time. (Finally.) There are currently half a dozen spot groups on the solar near side; 2571 is about to rotate to the far side, but there are also 2573-7 as well, which range from a simple single spot to a multi-spot complex.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span>
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjU66HDA1mGcY76l7fUtzcm52w-ikpVLqCuXhEK4ioHhm2y04r9nfD0U8a31DJvOdOJPs1Wwukn1wxhWBcuFAlqOuaii8Vztubsw83lRnbtX21pCmTL4w-Kck4TIykEPx77E9r24ZKnSJU/s1600/spot+regions_aug12.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><img border="0" height="200" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjU66HDA1mGcY76l7fUtzcm52w-ikpVLqCuXhEK4ioHhm2y04r9nfD0U8a31DJvOdOJPs1Wwukn1wxhWBcuFAlqOuaii8Vztubsw83lRnbtX21pCmTL4w-Kck4TIykEPx77E9r24ZKnSJU/s200/spot+regions_aug12.jpg" width="200" /></span></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">Solar Dynamics Observatory imagery<br />Labeling by Solarham.com</span></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">Note how the spots tend to cluster around the equatorial region. This is pretty typical for late in a solar cycle. Sunspots tend to start out at higher latitudes, closer to the poles, then drift equatorward.</span>
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">Very minor C-class flares are occurring, but there is little chance for anything stronger. A filament did lift, and this may produce a small coronal mass ejection, or CME. We're waiting on LASCO (Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph, an instrument on SOHO, the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory) imagery to determine if it made a CME or not. Such CMEs tend not to be as strong as those associated with large flares, so even if it is Earth-directed, expect pretty aurorae and a few high-latitude effects, but nothing of significance.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">There are some coronal holes, but they aren't "geoeffective" (aimed at Earth). Geomagnetic activity is quiet.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span>
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh4Xei1lmzbE4cGJCocXCPwsu_pCib6JdclinG241W9GkHsu6CgJnVWT-B7JPNIJ2sGq_UozShYGMPl2emIqtJOky7snUof1nYRkYmfQGtd2iFxDhSJ4FUZ5lhINxMZ5K84lbB4gcBfiYM/s1600/coronal+hole+images+12Aug.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><img border="0" height="200" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh4Xei1lmzbE4cGJCocXCPwsu_pCib6JdclinG241W9GkHsu6CgJnVWT-B7JPNIJ2sGq_UozShYGMPl2emIqtJOky7snUof1nYRkYmfQGtd2iFxDhSJ4FUZ5lhINxMZ5K84lbB4gcBfiYM/s200/coronal+hole+images+12Aug.jpg" width="200" /></span></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12.8px;">Solar Dynamics Observatory imagery</span><br style="font-size: 12.8px;" /><span style="font-size: 12.8px;">Labeling by Solarham.com</span></span></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<a href="http://www.sff.net/people/steph-osborn/Weathersmall.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"></span></a><span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">More data as it comes in.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">* * *</span></div>
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><b>PERSEID METEOR SHOWER:</b></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">Well, the night of August 11/12 was the absolute peak of the Perseids. I've just come in from spending about 20 minutes outside, having a look. (It's currently 4am local time.)</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">I have to say that I was underwhelmed, especially given the hype given to the predictions of "up to 200 meteors/hour." That comes out to be over 3 meteors per minute, or about one meteor every 15-20 seconds. So in 20 minutes, I should have seen around 66 meteors.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">I saw about 1/10 that.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">Now, granted, I'm in a subdivision and my skies are not the darkest. And we had some light patchy clouds moving through. But </span><span style="font-family: times, "times new roman", serif;"> </span><span style="font-family: times, "times new roman", serif;">I waited until after the moon had set before I went out, to have the darkest possible skies for my location. And I picked the clearest patches of sky to observe, and ensured I blocked any light sources. Keep in mind that I've observed this shower from this location numerous times before, as well, so I know what I'm looking for. And I've seen the Perseids storm, the year after the parent comet, Swift-Tuttle, came through -- both from a rural dark-sky site, and my yard, where I was tonight.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: times, "times new roman", serif;"><br /></span>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://spaceweather.com/meteors/perseids/images2009/10aug09/cooke1.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://spaceweather.com/meteors/perseids/images2009/10aug09/cooke1.jpg" height="150" width="200" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">Bill Cooke, NASA Meteoroid Environment Office,<br />Huntsville, AL<br />August 10, 2009</span></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<span style="font-family: times, "times new roman", serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: times, times new roman, serif;">I undoubtedly would have seen more meteors had I been in a dark-sky site. But ten times more? Really?</span><br />
<span style="font-family: times, times new roman, serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: times, times new roman, serif;">It's possible, also, that I simply picked a time when, coincidentally, we were going through a sparse patch -- I was busy writing, and lost track of time, or I'd have been out there earlier, for longer. I'll be interested to see what other observers have to say.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: times, times new roman, serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: times, times new roman, serif;">As for me -- I love the Perseids; they're gorgeous, bright fireball meteors. But this didn't come anywhere close to the spectacle I remember right after Swift-Tuttle came through. That was one I'll always remember. Tonight, not so much.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: times, times new roman, serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: times, times new roman, serif;">If you were out observing the Perseids, I'd love to hear your observations in the comments.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: times, times new roman, serif;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: times, times new roman, serif;">* * *</span></div>
<span style="font-family: times, "times new roman", serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: times, "times new roman", serif;"><b>BOOK RECOMMENDATIONS:</b></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span>
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/proxy/AVvXsEj397EsWez72bZ4aSX3N5468fqxv62bWZt1ZzYR5gt1uwl36igmWb51vHOwpWaHVJQbdCtg7OYPYiALfXZoQVpddovXv4nTL0vTsfsD06Iss7X0dWDJdcnDWutjZjNB49x5QECfWJtIAQRELAkDtqvFu2-JdOeIng=" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://www.sff.net/people/steph-osborn/Weathersmall.jpg" height="200" width="125" /></a><span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">For more information on solar activity, check out my ebook, <i><a href="https://www.amazon.com/The-Weather-There-Frightful-ebook/dp/B008JA00D0/ref=sr_1_16?ie=UTF8&qid=1341960341&sr=8-16&keywords=Stephanie+Osborn" target="_blank">The Weather Out There Is Frightful: Solar/Space Weather and What It Means for the Earth and You.</a></i></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><b style="background-color: white; font-size: 14.85px; line-height: 20.79px;"><br /></b></span>
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><b style="background-color: white; font-size: 14.85px; line-height: 20.79px;"><br /></b></span>
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><b style="background-color: white; font-size: 14.85px; line-height: 20.79px;"><br /></b></span>
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><b style="background-color: white; font-size: 14.85px; line-height: 20.79px;"><br /></b></span>
<b style="background-color: white; font-family: Times, "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 14.85px; line-height: 20.79px;"><br /></b>
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<a href="https://images-na.ssl-images-amazon.com/images/I/51os4wxWZyL._SX328_BO1,204,203,200_.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" height="200" src="https://images-na.ssl-images-amazon.com/images/I/51os4wxWZyL._SX328_BO1,204,203,200_.jpg" width="131" /></a><br />
<br /><span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="background-color: white; font-size: 14.85px; line-height: 20.79px;">Just a quick promo for me and my fellow scientists, for those of you who are interested in such things: A new anthology will be released in September (we hope!) called </span><i style="background-color: white; font-size: 14.85px; line-height: 20.79px;"><a href="https://www.amazon.com/Science-Fiction-Scientists-Anthology-Stories/dp/3319411012" style="color: #6060ca;" target="_blank">Science Fiction By Scientists</a></i><span style="background-color: white; font-size: 14.85px; line-height: 20.79px;">. Every short story in it is "hard SF" written by an actual scientist, along with a quick primer at the end of each story on the science involved. It's available for </span><a href="https://www.amazon.com/Science-Fiction-Scientists-Anthology-Stories/dp/3319411012" style="background-color: white; color: #6060ca; font-size: 14.85px; line-height: 20.79px;" target="_blank">preorder</a><span style="background-color: white; font-size: 14.85px; line-height: 20.79px;"> now!</span></span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">~Stephanie Osborn</span><br />
<a href="http://www.stephanie-osborn.com/"><span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">http://www.stephanie-osborn.com</span></a><br />
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span>
<!-- Blogger automated replacement: "https://images-blogger-opensocial.googleusercontent.com/gadgets/proxy?url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.sff.net%2Fpeople%2Fsteph-osborn%2FWeathersmall.jpg&container=blogger&gadget=a&rewriteMime=image%2F*" with "https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/proxy/AVvXsEj397EsWez72bZ4aSX3N5468fqxv62bWZt1ZzYR5gt1uwl36igmWb51vHOwpWaHVJQbdCtg7OYPYiALfXZoQVpddovXv4nTL0vTsfsD06Iss7X0dWDJdcnDWutjZjNB49x5QECfWJtIAQRELAkDtqvFu2-JdOeIng=" -->Unknownnoreply@blogger.com8tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1587033750758554083.post-32002344356103271752016-08-08T12:30:00.000-05:002016-08-08T12:30:00.177-05:00The Perseid Meteor Shower and Other Stuffby Stephanie Osborn<br />
<a href="http://www.stephanie-osborn.com/">http://www.stephanie-osborn.com</a><br />
<br />
FYI, there's a lot of hullaballoo about the Perseid meteor shower this year. Here's a little tidbit to explain why.<br />
<br />
<a href="http://www.sciencealert.com/guys-the-perseid-meteor-shower-is-here-and-it-s-going-to-be-twice-as-good-this-year">http://www.sciencealert.com/guys-the-perseid-meteor-shower-is-here-and-it-s-going-to-be-twice-as-good-this-year</a><br />
<br />
Meteor showers are actually the debris left behind by comets. The tails blown off by the Sun form tiny particles in the swath of the parent comet's orbit, and when the Earth passes through it, the debris we run into flashes through the atmosphere and burns up, producing meteors. Most of these bits are the size of dust and sand; occasionally one is pebble-sized, which will be very bright.<br />
<br />
This is why meteor showers are so predictable: we encounter the same orbital path each year, and go through the thickest part on the same day. If the parent comet has been through recently, there is a fresh, dense deposit of debris, and the shower will be especially good.<br />
<br />
The radiant of this shower is the constellation Perseus; that is to say, all the meteors of the shower appear to be emerging from Perseus, radiating out and away from it. But the meteors have nothing to do with Perseus. Instead, we are seeing a kind of optical illusion. Imagine that you are in a car at night, headlights on, driving through a snowstorm. As the snowflakes enter the headlights and you move through them, they appear to radiate from a point in front of the car, seeming to move out from that point and around the car. This is the same effect; it is produced by the Earth moving through the meteoric debris.<br />
<br />
So it will be easier to see the meteors if we are metaphorically on the hood of our planet-car than on the trunk! So it is better to observe meteor showers after midnight, because we are now on the forward-facing side in our orbit. The best observing times are from around 2 or 3am until near dawn.<br />
<br />
Facing the radiant is not the best way to see lots of meteors, because the trails will be short: the meteors are moving right at you, and the trails will be short and quick. If you look away from it, the meteors are passing by you, and they will have long trails and last longer. So the best way to look is to turn, so your shoulder is pointing at the radiant, or even put your back to it and watch one large region of sky. Then you will see meteors entering the atmosphere at shallower angles, and they will have longer tracks, with more chance to spot them.<br />
<br />
FWIW, meteor showers are not hard-edged things. Yes, the shower will have already started, but it is early stages yet, and they won't be very frequent. Your best bet for seeing meteors is a few days either side of the peak, which will occur the night of August 11/12. Also you want to go out AFTER MIDNIGHT. This is because you will now be on the forward-facing hemisphere relative to our orbit.<br />
<br />
Wear comfortable clothes, and even in summertime, make sure you have a jacket; it can get rather cool in the wee small hours of the night. You'll be there for a while, so think about a chair, a blanket on the ground, or the like. My preference is for a chaise lounge, because it holds me in a comfortable position for watching the sky. A lap throw or similar blanket might be nice, too, depending on the weather where you are. (If you're in the Southern Hemisphere, it'll be <i>de rigueur</i>. It IS winter down there, after all, Summer Olympics in Rio notwithstanding.)<br />
<br />
DO NOT FACE the radiant; this almost guarantees you'll see little to nothing. That's because you're looking right into the direction we're going, so meteor tracks will appear short and swift.<br />
<br />
On the night of the peak (and for several days fore and aft), Perseus will be in the northeast. Turn so that your shoulder, or even your back, faces northeast, and survey a large area of the sky looking any direction BUT northeast, and give yourself at least an hour to observe. You should see some nice meteors in that time, especially this year.<br />
<br />
Now, according to predictions, the Perseids MAY double their normal rate. But I never say an astronomical event like this ABSOLUTELY WILL do a thing. Because there are no guarantees. Yes, Jupiter may tweak the orbit of the debris so we do plow through the center of it -- but the part we plow through might just be unusually sparse, so it makes no difference.<br />
<br />
FYI, I have never heard of the meteors from showers making impact. This is because they are the debris left behind from comets, "dirty snowballs" whose ice has sublimated via solar radiation. All that's left is particulates ranging largely from dust up to grains of sand. Rarely you get something pebble-sized. It all burns up in the upper reaches of the atmosphere, and nothing much gets lower than around 60mi. (Regular meteors can get as low as 50mi. Some get as low as 40. It depends on the speed of the meteor. Perseids usually are gone by a 60mi. altitude.)<br />
<br />
<b>SOLAR UPDATE:</b> Sometime between Thursday and Friday, a couple of new sunspot groups formed on the solar near side, 2571 and 2572. They began rather unimpressively, but are now rather reasonable sunspot groups. However, the more active of the two groups, 2572, will be rotating off the west edge to the far side in the next couple of days.<br />
<br />
It's a little hard to determine what's going on with the solar far side right now; one of the twin STEREO spacecraft, STEREO Behind, has experienced a "transient hit" -- meaning that the electronics likely took a charged particle hit. Instrument recovery is in work now. The STEREO Ahead craft appears to indicate 2-3 large spot groups may be about to rotate to the near side.<br />
<br />
<a href="https://images-na.ssl-images-amazon.com/images/I/51os4wxWZyL._SX328_BO1,204,203,200_.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="200" src="https://images-na.ssl-images-amazon.com/images/I/51os4wxWZyL._SX328_BO1,204,203,200_.jpg" width="131" /></a>The outflow from a large, oblong coronal hole has enhanced the solar wind in the last few days, resulting in an unsettled geomagnetic field. Another one will swing around into a 'geoeffective' (Earth-directed) position in a few more days, possibly producing more minor geomag storming. I'll post if it does.<br />
<br />
<b>ADDENDUM:</b><br />
Just a quick promo for me and my fellow scientists, for those of you who are interested in such things: A new anthology will be released in September (we hope!) called <i><a href="https://www.amazon.com/Science-Fiction-Scientists-Anthology-Stories/dp/3319411012" target="_blank">Science Fiction By Scientists</a></i>. Every short story in it is "hard SF" written by an actual scientist, along with a quick primer at the end of each story on the science involved. It's available for <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Science-Fiction-Scientists-Anthology-Stories/dp/3319411012" target="_blank">preorder</a> now!<br />
<br />
~Stephanie Osborn<br />
<a href="http://www.stephanie-osborn.com/">http://www.stephanie-osborn.com</a>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1587033750758554083.post-16245361404844924032016-08-04T12:30:00.000-05:002016-08-04T12:30:00.192-05:00Throw-Back Thursday: Some Quick Look-Backs and Current Updatesby Stephanie Osborn<br />
<a href="http://www.stephanie-osborn.com/">http://www.stephanie-osborn.com</a><br />
<br />
<br />
Okay, folks, just a quick look into the past for those of you interested; this whole concept started off when a fellow author named Sarah Hoyt asked me to guest-blog for her about solar activity. Since then, she asked me back, so I have two posts on her blog about solar activity, one of which is only a few weeks old. Rather than re-post the whole thing here, I am simply going to link to her blog, to the particular articles in question.<br />
<br />
So here's the first one, with lots of background info. It was first posted in May of 2015.<br />
<a href="https://accordingtohoyt.com/2015/05/30/solar-space-and-terrestrial-weather-some-reflections-by-stephanie-osborn/">https://accordingtohoyt.com/2015/05/30/solar-space-and-terrestrial-weather-some-reflections-by-stephanie-osborn/</a><br />
<br />
And here is the second one, which was posted in early July 2016.<br />
<a href="https://accordingtohoyt.com/2016/07/15/here-spot-cmere-spot-by-stephanie-osborn/">https://accordingtohoyt.com/2016/07/15/here-spot-cmere-spot-by-stephanie-osborn/</a><br />
<br />
I still get notifications on these from Sarah's blog, and will answer if you have questions, so feel free to post questions or comments, here or there, or in the <a href="https://www.facebook.com/groups/294672317552181/" target="_blank">Osborn Cosmic Weather Report</a> group on Facebook.<br />
<br />
For those who want even more information, I strongly recommend picking up my ebook, <i>T<a href="https://www.amazon.com/Weather-Out-There-Frightful-ebook/dp/B008JA00D0?ie=UTF8&keywords=Stephanie%20Osborn&qid=1341960341&ref_=sr_1_16&sr=8-16" target="_blank">he Weather Out There Is Frightful</a>: Solar/Space Weather and What It Means for the Earth and You. </i>It's written by a professional astronomer (me) trained in spotted variable star science, for lay people with little to no science background.<br />
<i><br /></i>
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CURRENT SOLAR UPDATE: As of this writing (early 4 Aug) we are currently in our fourth consecutive day of no visible sunspots on the near side. This is the fourth group of spotless days since June 1st. The total number of spotless days since that date currently totals 24 out of 64, or 37.5%. If we add in the days with only a tiny, short-lived spot group in that same time frame, we add in 9 more days, or 33 out of 64, at 51.6%.<br />
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<a href="http://www.solarham.net/pictures/archive/aug2_2016_disk.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://www.solarham.net/pictures/archive/aug2_2016_disk.jpg" height="200" width="200" /></a></div>
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A visible-light image of the Sun, taken by the Solar Dynamics Observatory on August 2, 2016, depicting a lack of sunspots on the solar near side.<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
~~~</div>
<br />
HOUSEKEEPING NOTE: Oh, by the way, abusive comments and/or argumentative comments will be moderated on the Comet Tales blog and in the Facebook group. And I reserve the right not to answer such posts on Sarah's blog. I don't put up with trolling. I have better things to do with my time.<br />
<br />
~Stephanie Osborn<br />
<a href="http://www.stephanie-osborn.com/">http://www.stephanie-osborn.com</a>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1587033750758554083.post-13919982078515461682016-08-03T15:40:00.002-05:002016-08-03T16:18:27.875-05:00Solar/Geomagnetic Activity!by Stephanie Osborn<br />
<a href="http://www.stephanie-osborn.com/">http://www.stephanie-osborn.com</a><br />
<br />
HEADS UP, SPACE FANS!<br />
<br />
Earth is currently experiencing a GEOMAGNETIC STORM! These occur when a sudden influx of plasma (a gas cloud of charged particles) enters Earth's magnetic field from outside, most often from solar activity (a coronal mass ejection aka CME, or an enhanced wind stream from a coronal hole). They can be mild, strong, or severe, depending upon how dense the plasma cloud is.<br />
<br />
Okay, for those of you just tuning in, let's work on explaining some terms.<br />
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
~~~</div>
<blockquote class="tr_bq" style="margin-left: -.5pt; text-indent: 19.5pt;">
<a href="https://images-na.ssl-images-amazon.com/images/I/51Cde5h1rsL.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="200" src="https://images-na.ssl-images-amazon.com/images/I/51Cde5h1rsL.jpg" width="124" /></a><span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"> We
are also sitting inside the atmosphere of the Sun, which is called the corona.
Yes, we are, even at 93 million miles distant. It generates a wind, usually
coming out from the Sun and spiraling away – yeah, the “solar wind.” Granted,
the corona isn't very dense, but it's dense enough to create some effects, and
we're working on using it to our benefit, like in solar sails and such, which
can use the solar wind as much as light pressure (different topic) to maneuver
around the Solar System like the spaceborne clipper ships of old.</span> </blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq" style="margin-left: -.5pt; text-indent: 19.5pt;">
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"> But
when the Sun gets... agitated, we'll say... the solar wind can get a lot
denser. Coronal holes tend to move gradually from the poles down to lower
latitudes, and the Sun's face develops an astronomical case of acne. This
usually occurs around the time of solar maximum.</span></blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq" style="margin-left: -.5pt; text-indent: 19.5pt;">
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">~</span><a href="https://www.amazon.com/Weather-Out-There-Frightful-ebook/dp/B008JA00D0?ie=UTF8&keywords=Stephanie%20Osborn&qid=1341960341&ref_=sr_1_16&sr=8-16" style="font-family: Times, "Times New Roman", serif;" target="_blank">The Weather Out There Is Frightful</a><span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">, Stephanie Osborn, </span><span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;">©2011</span></blockquote>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;">~~~</span></div>
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;"><br /></span>
Now, a coronal hole is just a place in the magnetic field where the field lines stretch out to infinity, rather than looping back around, like the poles of a bar magnet. That means that the plasma can channel outward along those field lines, deep into the solar system.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiDVO-mYebawxE23GeVMa_C8kW5mHkv4dWrdHtOjrTCIjfui7eKIWt9QoMxVLra7F_vhRNBpQ3qA1pmVqp4BBj1q8qyuk77r93xLo4G7dV2zQMFSddMSXs9PUHjB_j-oer3tb54T_7Ipug/s1600/coronal+hole.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="200" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiDVO-mYebawxE23GeVMa_C8kW5mHkv4dWrdHtOjrTCIjfui7eKIWt9QoMxVLra7F_vhRNBpQ3qA1pmVqp4BBj1q8qyuk77r93xLo4G7dV2zQMFSddMSXs9PUHjB_j-oer3tb54T_7Ipug/s200/coronal+hole.jpg" width="200" /></a></div>
This is an image of the inner corona of the Sun, taken by the Solar Dynamics Observatory on August 2, 2016, at a wavelength of 211 Angstroms. The dark regions are the coronal holes, which show up nicely at this spectral region.<br />
<br />
If Earth happens to run into one of these "enhanced solar wind streams," as they're called, if it's strong enough, it slams into our magnetic field like a bow wave from a ship. This compressed the magnetic field on the sunward side, and stretches out the "tail" on the anti-sunward side. If the tail is stretched enough, it can snap off, and "magnetic reconnection" occurs, when the field lines reattach closer in. But magnetic reattachment itself generates a HUGE surge of energy, which is fed back into Earth along our own poles.<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
~~~</div>
<blockquote class="tr_bq" style="margin-left: -.5pt; text-indent: 19.5pt;">
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"> So
what are the effects of coronal hole winds and Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs)?</span> </blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq" style="margin-left: -.5pt; text-indent: 19.5pt;">
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;"> They can actually raise the
temperature of the outer layers of the Earth's atmosphere (the thermosphere,
aptly named) sufficient to cause it to expand. This affects us, because that
increases drag on satellites and spacecraft, and can cause the orbits of
satellites to decay and re-enter well before they were intended...</span></span> </blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq" style="margin-left: -.5pt; text-indent: 19.5pt;">
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;"></span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"> Disruption
of the Earth's magnetic field can be a problem. It can disrupt radio
communication (including cell phones) rather severely. It can damage satellites
that remain in orbit. It can generate “induced current” in any lengthy
conductor...</span>And
it causes the aurorae. Most of you reading this have heard of the Northern
Lights, properly termed the Aurora Borealis, but there are also the Southern
Lights, the Aurora Australis. These are actually ovals that circle the magnetic
poles of Earth (and most other planets with magnetic fields, by the way.
They've been photographed on Jupiter.) They are where the charged particles
that have been caught up from the solar wind or CME into the geomagnetic field
follow the field lines down into the atmosphere. The gas molecules become
excited into a higher energy state, then discharge that extra energy as light.
This is very similar–in fact, essentially the same–as a fluorescent light bulb,
only natural and not contained. The colors are determined mostly by the main
gas that is fluorescing. Carbon dioxide produces white light; nitrogen, pink or
red; oxygen, green or blue. (It can also generate ozone.)</span></blockquote>
<div class="Textbodyindentebook" style="margin-left: -.5pt; text-indent: 19.5pt;">
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">~<a href="https://www.amazon.com/Weather-Out-There-Frightful-ebook/dp/B008JA00D0?ie=UTF8&keywords=Stephanie%20Osborn&qid=1341960341&ref_=sr_1_16&sr=8-16" target="_blank">The Weather Out There Is Frightful</a>, Stephanie Osborn, <span style="font-size: 12pt;">©2011</span></span><br />
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~~~</div>
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So what we've got, space fans, is a big ol' coronal hole generating an enhanced solar wind stream, and the Earth ran smack into it. Currently the planetary K-index (a rough measure of the strength of the disturbance in the planetary mag field) is oscillating between 5 and 4, and at 5, we start geomagnetic storming. It's minor, so far, but it's there. So we are under an official NOAA GEOMAGNETIC STORM ALERT for MINOR GEOMAGNETIC STORMING.<br />
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This in turn means that there will be some heating of the upper atmosphere, and it can induce some currents in conductive materials near the poles. Communications may be affected in high latitudes, and migratory animals may briefly become confused.<br />
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But what it ALSO means is that we have an AURORA ALERT for high latitudes! Now, NOAA doesn't put out aurora alerts. But I do! My followers on Facebook know that whenever conditions are right, I issue an aurora alert, and give a heads-up to the regions who can reasonably expect to see one. This is not a guarantee that you WILL, only that the probability is GOOD. Therefore --<br />
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Residents of Canada, Greenland, extreme northern Russia, Finland, Sweden, Norway, Iceland, possibly extreme northern Scotland, Antarctica and the islands in the Antarctic oceans, Australia's state of Tasmania, the southern tip of New Zealand's south island, and the northern regions of the following USA states: Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, parts of North Dakota, and essentially all of Alaska --<br />
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Keep an eye to the skies tonight! You just might see an aurora!<br />
<br />
~Stephanie Osborn<br />
<a href="http://www.stephanie-osborn.com/">http://www.stephanie-osborn.com</a><br />
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<br />Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1587033750758554083.post-54115260067682573712016-08-01T20:00:00.000-05:002016-08-01T20:00:38.263-05:00A New Direction<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">by Stephanie Osborn</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><a href="http://www.stephanie-osborn.com/">http://www.stephanie-osborn.com</a></span><br />
1 August 2016<br />
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">Effective today, I'm taking Comet Tales in a new direction.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">Many of you know me as an author. Many know me as a scientist. Oddly, many do NOT know me as BOTH.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">So I'm going to show y'all how it works! Starting today, <i>Comet Tales</i> is going to feature the latest information in solar weather, and space weather and news! Alongside that will be information on my latest book releases, and any titles of mine that pertain to the space news of the day!</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">I won't be posting on a completely regular basis; rather, I'll post on an as-needed basis to ensure you have the most up-to-date information I've got! That might be once a day, it might be once a week, depending on what's happening. It may be a longish post, detailing and explaining a solar event, or it may be a link to a detailed article, with a few comments. So keep up with the blog! Follow me, and you'll always know the latest going on in the space above our atmosphere!</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><b><u>Today's space news:</u></b></span></h4>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><b><u>Asteroid Bennu</u></b></span></h4>
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">We've got a little time, but asteroid 101955 Bennu could cause problems in about 120 years:</span><br />
<a class="" href="http://news.sky.com/story/asteroid-strike-could-cause-immense-suffering-10519054" id="LPlnk344635" previewinformation="1" style="background-color: white;" target="_blank"><span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">http://news.sky.com/story/asteroid-strike-could-cause-immense-suffering-10519054</span></a><br />
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">It's unlikely but not impossible.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span>
<a href="https://images-na.ssl-images-amazon.com/images/I/51X3ZsNXL5L._SX329_BO1,204,203,200_.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><img border="0" height="200" src="https://images-na.ssl-images-amazon.com/images/I/51X3ZsNXL5L._SX329_BO1,204,203,200_.jpg" width="132" /></span></a><span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">Can we do anything about it? Yes.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">Travis S. Taylor and I discussed that in our nonfiction book, <i><a href="https://www.amazon.com/New-American-Space-Plan-Ringleader/dp/1451638655?ie=UTF8&qid=1335238508&ref_=sr_1_12&sr=8-12" target="_blank">A New American Space Plan</a></i>. There are many possible ways to redirect an asteroid or comet, and we cover them all in our book. Check it out!</span><br />
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<h4>
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><b><u>Sunspots/Solar Activity</u></b></span></h4>
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">Also we have yet another day with no visible sunspots. If the active sunspots that rotated off about 5 days ago have survived, they would seem to be the only spots on the solar surface. The most recent imagery from the STEREO website (which is NOT on the Solarham website, which has begun updating less and less frequently in recent weeks) indicates that they have indeed survived and are nearing the center of the solar farside disk.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span>
<a href="https://images-na.ssl-images-amazon.com/images/I/51Cde5h1rsL.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="200" src="https://images-na.ssl-images-amazon.com/images/I/51Cde5h1rsL.jpg" width="124" /></a><span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">Spot group 2570, which showed up to end the last no-spot run, dissipated on Saturday; another short-lived binary spot group showed up on Sunday but didn't even stay around long enough to be numbered, and now, officially August 2nd GMT/UTC, we are back to no spots.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">If I count the "dinky" spots as being essentially no spots, then 30 out of the last 63 days have had little to no sunspots visible (47.6%). 22 out of 63 were unequivocally spotless (34.9%).</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">And yes, I do know a thing or two about this -- my graduate work was in spotted variable star astronomy. I have an ebook out about solar variability called <i><a href="https://www.amazon.com/Weather-Out-There-Frightful-ebook/dp/B008JA00D0?ie=UTF8&keywords=Stephanie%20Osborn&qid=1341960341&ref_=sr_1_16&sr=8-16" target="_blank">The Weather Out There Is Frightful</a></i>, and it talks about spots, flares, coronal mass ejections, the solar cycle, extended minima, and more. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">~Stephanie Osborn</span><br />
<a href="http://www.stephanie-osborn.com/"><span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">http://www.stephanie-osborn.com</span></a>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com10tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1587033750758554083.post-12617316517869730932015-06-17T03:30:00.000-05:002015-06-17T03:30:02.075-05:00A Guest Blog: Lisa M. Collins and Archaeology<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">by Stephanie Osborn</span><br />
<a href="http://www.stephanie-osborn.com/"><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">http://www.stephanie-osborn.com</span></a><br />
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">Lisa Collins is an online friend of mine, a lady after my own heart for her interest in several sciences. So when she put out a request to guest blog for her latest release, <i><a href="http://www.amazon.com/dp/B00ZEDG0G6/" target="_blank">The House Bast Made</a></i>, I said, "Sure!" despite the fact that my blog has been inactive for several months. (Hopefully this will change in future; it seems that the various social media have not followed through on the intended charges for "advertising.") So here she is, to tell you a little about herself.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">~~~</span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhMFn1op_1p8jXgiQVJp-d6nOqYmI1zJrDD2qyyoFsJkF8fFLj8J7pNoWvWTahcCZ08IdjVnirbtwm4pgrayDfccjPPkK1GVoRIvRec1bs6_Xu_pHHJD3DB0yRxtLVfPq6hKaIJRIIRVxk/s1600/Lisa+in+blue.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="200" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhMFn1op_1p8jXgiQVJp-d6nOqYmI1zJrDD2qyyoFsJkF8fFLj8J7pNoWvWTahcCZ08IdjVnirbtwm4pgrayDfccjPPkK1GVoRIvRec1bs6_Xu_pHHJD3DB0yRxtLVfPq6hKaIJRIIRVxk/s200/Lisa+in+blue.jpg" width="119" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><b>Archaeology and Me</b></span></div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><b>by Lisa M. Collins</b></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">I have a deep and abiding love for
all things ancient Egyptian. When I was little, I found an old, worn book about
the country, which I still have to this day. Imagine me out in the backyard
doing excavations trying to find bits and bobs of interest. In my mind, I was a
great archaeologist. As time moved on, other subjects took the place of archaeology
in my heart. By the time I graduated college, I considered myself a historian.
What most people don’t understand about degrees in the humanities is that you must
be able to communicate in written form. Without words how would the world have
learned from Plato, Aristotle, the Prophets, Bertrand Russell, or Martin Luther
King, Jr? <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">The written word is what accurately
preserves ideas, leading to thought, and then to action. This drives me to present
my words, thoughts, and ideas in writing. I studied not only the masters like
Shakespeare, Tolstoy, Hemingway, Austen, Woolf, Mark Twain, Frederick Douglass,
and Maya Angelou, but also speech writers for the White House and newspapers.
Any time I find a writer who draws me into their story, I study how they
accomplished the goal. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjJBmB-1KVz1AFg77WEmQM6Lx-LV0rSRqgi9pJKuqGWi9nydMwVT3W3P84TJ62vS4HwTIQ9D1FdlMLFY3ClwB4tJbveqpJYGfOXWBAenLczw_U_SmRQAY5DiA3nwYcKWUf3avy2afZ7b-g/s1600/Lisa+being+weird.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" height="150" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjJBmB-1KVz1AFg77WEmQM6Lx-LV0rSRqgi9pJKuqGWi9nydMwVT3W3P84TJ62vS4HwTIQ9D1FdlMLFY3ClwB4tJbveqpJYGfOXWBAenLczw_U_SmRQAY5DiA3nwYcKWUf3avy2afZ7b-g/s200/Lisa+being+weird.jpg" width="200" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">My desire to write starts off with a
sad tale and a dash of memory. In 2008 the company I worked for downsized and I
was one of the many who were let go. I had a small severance package so I
didn’t immediately have to hit the byways looking for work. There I was,
looking for what to do next and I was reminded of how, when I was little, I
would tell stories to entertain my friends. To figure out how to begin writing
my imaginings down for others I went to the wisest ‘person’ I know—that’s
right, Dr. Google! I came across NaNoWriMo, or National Novel Writing Month.
Being a total fiction n00b, I decided to take up the challenge and write 50,000
words in the month of November. Believe it or not, right out of the gate, I did
it!<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">Later I got a job working for the
State of Arkansas, but the itch to write never fell into the background. I kept
dabbling and learning from others. Eventually, I had several things published
in non-fiction venues, such as the state newspaper and journals, but passion
was to write fiction. One thing you need to know about me is that I love goal
setting and lists, so I set a goal of producing one new short story a month,
and a secondary goal to find publishers who would print my work. As any of you
out there in publishing already know, I got my fair share of rejection letters.
My very first one hangs on the wall by my desk.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">Rejection is hard, but I didn’t let that
hold me back. I went back to the drawing board. Read books on craft. Read
novels like I wanted to write. The day finally arrived in early 2013 when my
first science fiction short story, <i>The
Tree of Life</i>, was accepted into an anthology! I was over the moon! Rejections,
however, still happen. I have come to the realization they are part and parcel
of the writing life. Each one I receive proves to me I’m not standing still,
I’m working, and I will prevail. Also in the last five to ten years a new way
of presenting work to the public has exploded into the mainstream. Indie
publishing. Now writers have the opportunity to showcase work directly to
readers without a go-between. Some writers do all their work independently,
others only work with publishers, but I find myself in between these two. I am
both traditionally published and indie published. I love the freedom to chart
my own course.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjcVwulkBzmtzkypkGy-uJxlmEbDsCqyKgrnULq3ILiJqPOHI9k1fodY1963AwVvs9GHaapwj6wHQwjoZc4in3YbZQSzaC5uy56BATrgKmdKEybfX2-hNpRCLQSNt9kyvb-5qphNbKD2to/s1600/Reid+Cannon+1.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="200" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjcVwulkBzmtzkypkGy-uJxlmEbDsCqyKgrnULq3ILiJqPOHI9k1fodY1963AwVvs9GHaapwj6wHQwjoZc4in3YbZQSzaC5uy56BATrgKmdKEybfX2-hNpRCLQSNt9kyvb-5qphNbKD2to/s200/Reid+Cannon+1.jpg" width="120" /></a><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">When I was writing my latest
novella, <i><a href="http://www.amazon.com/dp/B00ZEDG0G6/" target="_blank">The House Bast Made</a></i>, I got
to put my archaeology hat back on. It felt good, like I was revisiting an old
friend…you know, the kind that gets you into trouble, but you love every moment.
This book was such fun to write. I knew the setting in Egypt’s Valley of the
Kings was going to be perfect for some fantastical paranormal fun. Our
archaeologist, Reid Cannon, comes to the realization—myths need not be fairy
tales. Reid and his friends get embroiled in a war between gods and goddesses
that has raged for eons. Reid and his crew must come together to save a friend
from the brink of death and the world from utter chaos. My hope is that you will
enjoy your time in the Valley of the Kings and join us next time when Reid
Cannon travels to South America!<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<b><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">Where
can readers find out more about you and where can they buy <i><a href="http://www.amazon.com/dp/B00ZEDG0G6/" target="_blank">The House Bast Made</a></i>?<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">Amazon <a href="http://www.amazon.com/Lisa-M.-Collins/e/B00PPV5QYO/">http://www.amazon.com/Lisa-M.-Collins/e/B00PPV5QYO/</a>
<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">Twitter <a href="http://twitter.com/coolvstar650">http://twitter.com/coolvstar650</a> <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">Facebook <a href="http://www.facebook.com/lisaauthor">http://www.facebook.com/lisaauthor</a>
<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">LinkedIn <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/lisacollins">https://www.linkedin.com/in/lisacollins</a><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">Pinterest <a href="http://pinterest.com/coolvstar650/">http://pinterest.com/coolvstar650/</a>
<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">Google+ <a href="http://google.com/+LisaMCollins/posts">http://google.com/+LisaMCollins/posts</a>
<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">Instagram <a href="http://instagram.com/coolvstar650">http://instagram.com/coolvstar650</a> <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">Soundcloud <a href="https://soundcloud.com/lisa-matthews-collins">https://soundcloud.com/lisa-matthews-collins</a>
<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">Pen and Cape Society: <a href="http://penandcapesociety.com/lisa-m-collins/">http://penandcapesociety.com/lisa-m-collins/</a>
<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">Wookiees for Cookies Racing Team <a href="https://wookieesforcookies.wordpress.com/">https://wookieesforcookies.wordpress.com/</a>
<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">For Deep Fried Dixie Goodness follow
Lisa as Tea and Cornbread <a href="https://twitter.com/teaandcornbread">https://twitter.com/teaandcornbread</a>
<a href="https://www.facebook.com/teaandcornbread">https://www.facebook.com/teaandcornbread</a>
<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">And at the Tea and Cornbread blog <a href="http://teaandcornbread.wordpress.com/">http://teaandcornbread.wordpress.com/</a>
<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">Looking for more of:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><a href="https://lisacollins.wordpress.com/category/healthy-lifestyle/" target="_blank">Healthy Writer Series</a> <a href="https://lisacollins.wordpress.com/category/healthy-lifestyle/">https://lisacollins.wordpress.com/category/healthy-lifestyle/</a>
<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><a href="https://lisacollins.wordpress.com/category/interviews/" target="_blank">Author
Interview Series</a> <a href="https://lisacollins.wordpress.com/category/interviews/">https://lisacollins.wordpress.com/category/interviews/</a><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">Sign up to get the latest info on
book launches and special newsletter only promotions!<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><a href="http://wordpress.us2.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=278e3f25f955d9e98afa61a9e&id=05f57a9e09">http://wordpress.us2.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=278e3f25f955d9e98afa61a9e&id=05f57a9e09</a>
<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<o:p><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">~~~</span></o:p></div>
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<o:p><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">A little more about Lisa:</span></o:p></div>
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<blockquote class="tr_bq" style="text-indent: 0in;">
<span style="color: #222222; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">Lisa M. Collins has
always been interested in Outer Space, Adventure stories, and Southern culture.
She was born in Dixie and has always lived south of the Mason Dixon Line. She
graduated from the University of Arkansas with a bachelor’s degree in history
with specializations in American and Russian history. Lisa lives in central
Arkansas with her husband and an adorable cat, Baby Girl, who believes she is
Lisa’s co-author. Lisa has one adult son who is married to his high school
sweetheart.</span></span></blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq" style="text-indent: 0in;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="color: #222222;">Lisa’s non-fiction
has been published in the Arkansas Democrat-Gazette and the Dead Mule School of
Southern Literature. . She copy edited and researched on Understanding Global
Slavery by University of California Press. Her science fiction story, The Tree
of Life, is in the 2013-2014 anthology by Holdfast Magazine. These days she
edits for Metahuman Press, and is an upcoming creative contributor with Pro Se
Productions and Mechanoid Press. She is a Sally A. Williams Grant winner from
the Arkansas Arts Council for writing.</span></span></o:p></blockquote>
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<o:p><span style="color: #222222;"><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">Meanwhile, as the blog break gave me a chance to get a brand-new book out the door (more about THAT later!), I'll try to get my act together and start posting again on a regular schedule, guys.</span></span></o:p></div>
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<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><o:p><span style="color: #222222;">-</span></o:p>Stephanie Osborn</span></div>
<a href="http://www.stephanie-osborn.com/"><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">http://www.stephanie-osborn.com</span></a>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1587033750758554083.post-31649275194478885552015-02-25T03:30:00.000-06:002015-02-25T03:30:01.137-06:00Read An Ebook Week!<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><b style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-size: 15px; line-height: 21.2999992370605px;"><a href="http://www.ebookweek.com/" target="_blank">Read an eBook Week</a></b><span style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-size: 15px; line-height: 21.2999992370605px;"> will run from March 1st-7th this year. That starts<b> THIS SUNDAY!</b></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://twilighttimesbooks.com/images/SIM_rebw2015sm.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><img border="0" src="http://twilighttimesbooks.com/images/SIM_rebw2015sm.jpg" /></span></a></div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">Artwork © <a href="http://www.bfillustration.com/" target="_blank">Brad Fraunfelter</a></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><br style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-size: 15px; line-height: 21.2999992370605px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-size: 15px; line-height: 21.2999992370605px;">The following titles will be offered as <a href="http://twilighttimesbooks.com/freebies.html" target="_blank">free giveaways via the Twilight Times Books web site</a> during Read an eBook Week, March 1-7, 2015.</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-size: 15px; line-height: 21.2999992370605px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-size: 15px; line-height: 21.2999992370605px;" /><i style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-size: 15px; line-height: 21.2999992370605px;">An Elfy on the Loose</i><span style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-size: 15px; line-height: 21.2999992370605px;"> by Barb Caffrey</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-size: 15px; line-height: 21.2999992370605px;" /><i style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-size: 15px; line-height: 21.2999992370605px;">Behold the Eyes of Light</i><span style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-size: 15px; line-height: 21.2999992370605px;"> by Geoff Geauterre</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-size: 15px; line-height: 21.2999992370605px;" /><i style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-size: 15px; line-height: 21.2999992370605px;">Book Reviewers Talk about their Craft</i><span style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-size: 15px; line-height: 21.2999992370605px;"> by Mayra Calvani</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-size: 15px; line-height: 21.2999992370605px;" /><i style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-size: 15px; line-height: 21.2999992370605px;">Cassie Scot: </i><i style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-size: 15px; line-height: 21.2999992370605px;"><strike style="line-height: 21.2999992370605px;">Para</strike></i><i style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-size: 15px; line-height: 21.2999992370605px;">Normal Detective</i><span style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-size: 15px; line-height: 21.2999992370605px;"> by Christine Amden</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-size: 15px; line-height: 21.2999992370605px;" /><i style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-size: 15px; line-height: 21.2999992370605px;">Death on Delivery</i><span style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-size: 15px; line-height: 21.2999992370605px;"> by Anne K. Edwards</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-size: 15px; line-height: 21.2999992370605px;" /><i style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-size: 15px; line-height: 21.2999992370605px;">Deeds of a Colored Soldier During the Rebellion</i><span style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-size: 15px; line-height: 21.2999992370605px;"> by F. W. Abel</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-size: 15px; line-height: 21.2999992370605px;" /><i style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-size: 15px; line-height: 21.2999992370605px;">Don't Let the Wind Catch You</i><span style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-size: 15px; line-height: 21.2999992370605px;"> by Aaron Paul Lazar</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-size: 15px; line-height: 21.2999992370605px;" /><i style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-size: 15px; line-height: 21.2999992370605px;">How I Wrote My First Book: the story behind the story</i><span style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-size: 15px; line-height: 21.2999992370605px;"> by Anne K. Edwards and Lida E. </span><span style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-size: 15px; line-height: 21.2999992370605px;">Quillen, Editors</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-size: 15px; line-height: 21.2999992370605px;" /><i style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-size: 15px; line-height: 21.2999992370605px;">Jerome and the Seraph</i><span style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-size: 15px; line-height: 21.2999992370605px;"> by Robina Williams</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-size: 15px; line-height: 21.2999992370605px;" /><i style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-size: 15px; line-height: 21.2999992370605px;">Laughing All the Way</i><span style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-size: 15px; line-height: 21.2999992370605px;"> by Darrell Bain</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-size: 15px; line-height: 21.2999992370605px;" /><i style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-size: 15px; line-height: 21.2999992370605px;">Literary Sampler</i><span style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-size: 15px; line-height: 21.2999992370605px;"> by Mayra Calvani, Aaron Paul Lazar and Anne K. Edwards</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-size: 15px; line-height: 21.2999992370605px;" /><i style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-size: 15px; line-height: 21.2999992370605px;">Monkey Trap</i><span style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-size: 15px; line-height: 21.2999992370605px;"> by Lee Denning</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-size: 15px; line-height: 21.2999992370605px;" /><i style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-size: 15px; line-height: 21.2999992370605px;">No Place for Gods</i><span style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-size: 15px; line-height: 21.2999992370605px;"> by Gerald Mills</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-size: 15px; line-height: 21.2999992370605px;" /><i style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-size: 15px; line-height: 21.2999992370605px;">Rue the Day</i><span style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-size: 15px; line-height: 21.2999992370605px;"> by Ralph Freedman</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-size: 15px; line-height: 21.2999992370605px;" /><i style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-size: 15px; line-height: 21.2999992370605px;">Schooled in Magic</i><span style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-size: 15px; line-height: 21.2999992370605px;"> by Christopher Nuttall</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-size: 15px; line-height: 21.2999992370605px;" /><b><i style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-size: 15px; line-height: 21.2999992370605px;">The Case of the Displaced Detective: The Arrival</i><span style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-size: 15px; line-height: 21.2999992370605px;"> by Stephanie Osborn</span></b><br style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-size: 15px; line-height: 21.2999992370605px;" /><i style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-size: 15px; line-height: 21.2999992370605px;">The Storks of La Caridad</i><span style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-size: 15px; line-height: 21.2999992370605px;"> by Florence Byham Weinberg</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-size: 15px; line-height: 21.2999992370605px;" /><i style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-size: 15px; line-height: 21.2999992370605px;">Touch of Fate</i><span style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-size: 15px; line-height: 21.2999992370605px;"> by Christine Amsden</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-size: 15px; line-height: 21.2999992370605px;" /><i style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-size: 15px; line-height: 21.2999992370605px;">Tremolo: cry of the loon</i><span style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-size: 15px; line-height: 21.2999992370605px;"> by Aaron Paul Lazar</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-size: 15px; line-height: 21.2999992370605px;" /><i style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-size: 15px; line-height: 21.2999992370605px;">Who is Margaret? What is She? and Other Stories</i><span style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-size: 15px; line-height: 21.2999992370605px;"> by Celia A. Leaman</span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-size: 15px; line-height: 21.2999992370605px;"><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-size: 15px; line-height: 21.2999992370605px;"><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">Different books, free, each day! Check it out!</span></span>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1587033750758554083.post-60714344029023293682015-01-01T00:00:00.000-06:002015-01-01T00:00:03.799-06:00Happy New Year!by Stephanie Osborn<br />
<a href="http://www.stephanie-osborn.com/">http://www.stephanie-osborn.com</a><br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://images.all-free-download.com/images/graphiclarge/happy_new_year_background_310537.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://images.all-free-download.com/images/graphiclarge/happy_new_year_background_310537.jpg" height="310" width="320" /></a></div>
<br />
<br />
And today marks the first day of 2015! Wow, how fast they go.<br />
<br />
We'll do the traditional thing of singing <i>Auld Lang Syne</i>, but before we do, let's find out a bit about it, shall we?<br />
<br />
Everybody knows the first verse and the chorus, but did you know there were five verses? Robert Burns, poet laureate of Scotland, wrote it in 1788 -- at least, he wrote the lyrics. The tune was an old folk tune, nobody knows just how old. According to Burns himself, he didn't write even the lyrics, but took dictation from an elder. So it may all be an ancient folk tune.<br />
<br />
And the title, "auld lang syne," transliterates as, "old long since," or as we would say today, "a long time ago." In understanding the song, we need to realize that not only is the English archaic, but the lyrics veer back and forth between English, Scots Gaelic, and Scots English dialect! But in general one may take it as two old friends, having come to a milestone in their lives, reminiscing over a pint. Rather apropos to a New Year's Day, I think.<br />
<br />
(If you want a good idea of what is really being said, check out <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Auld_Lang_Syne#Lyrics" target="_blank">Wikipedia</a>, which actually has a very decent modern translation. I don't usually recommend it as a be-all end-all, but in this case, it's pretty good.)<br />
<br />
And now let's have a look at the <i>entire </i>song.<br />
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~~~</div>
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<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<i>Auld Lang Syne</i></div>
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by Robert Burns</div>
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<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
Should auld acquaintance be forgot, </div>
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And never brought to mind? </div>
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Should auld acquaintance be forgot, </div>
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And auld lang syne! </div>
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<br /></div>
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For auld lang syne, my dear, </div>
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For auld lang syne. </div>
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We'll tak a cup o' kindness yet, </div>
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For auld lang syne. </div>
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<br /></div>
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And surely ye'll be your pint stowp! </div>
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And surely I'll be mine! </div>
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And we'll tak a cup o'kindness yet, </div>
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For auld lang syne. </div>
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<br /></div>
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For auld lang syne, my dear, </div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
For auld lang syne. </div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
We'll tak a cup o' kindness yet, </div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
For auld lang syne.</div>
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<br /></div>
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We twa hae run about the braes, </div>
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And pou'd the gowans fine; </div>
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But we've wander'd mony a weary fit, </div>
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Sin' auld lang syne. </div>
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<br /></div>
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For auld lang syne, my dear, </div>
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For auld lang syne. </div>
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We'll tak a cup o' kindness yet, </div>
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For auld lang syne. </div>
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<br /></div>
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We twa hae paidl'd in the burn, </div>
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Frae morning sun till dine; </div>
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But seas between us braid hae roar'd </div>
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Sin' auld lang syne. </div>
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<br /></div>
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For auld lang syne, my dear, </div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
For auld lang syne. </div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
We'll tak a cup o' kindness yet, </div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
For auld lang syne.</div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
And there's a hand, my trusty fere! </div>
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And gie's a hand o' thine! </div>
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And we'll tak a right gude-willie waught, </div>
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For auld lang syne. </div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
For auld lang syne, my dear, </div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
For auld lang syne. </div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
We'll tak a cup o' kindness yet, </div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
For auld lang syne.</div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2014/10/09/1412870725077_wps_111_ca_1985_1990_Ireland_Two_.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2014/10/09/1412870725077_wps_111_ca_1985_1990_Ireland_Two_.jpg" height="135" width="200" /></a></div>
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<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
~~~</div>
<br />
May 2015 bring you blessings and happiness, now and the whole year through!<br />
<br />
-Stephanie Osborn<br />
<a href="http://www.stephanie-osborn.com/">http://www.stephanie-osborn.com</a>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1587033750758554083.post-16998266520798499362014-12-31T00:00:00.000-06:002014-12-31T00:00:00.916-06:00"A Song for New Year's Eve"by Stephanie Osborn<br />
<a href="http://www.stephanie-osborn.com/">http://www.stephanie-osborn.com</a><br />
<br />
Today is the last day of 2014. It seems not so very long ago that it was the first day of 2014. I suppose that's a sign that I'm getting old. But I don't feel it, and so let us raise a glass in toast of what has been, and what shall be.<br />
<br />
In that vein, here's one of my favorite poems for the day. I've used it before, and I've no doubt I'll use it again. I hope you like it as much as I do.<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhoNaMVe4T7FJe6dyeqNhfNKrArxdhNEpV9rFsUfOEDwVQn3RTT53ANel280FZ5YJd1gHr3fvTJfgERNsa-l6FTPjWdrY4UGRyks5Upmfxisdxn9pZ9tIeTHOXUeNIMlZwSVEmRKWKzKbA/s1600/new-years-banner+champagne.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhoNaMVe4T7FJe6dyeqNhfNKrArxdhNEpV9rFsUfOEDwVQn3RTT53ANel280FZ5YJd1gHr3fvTJfgERNsa-l6FTPjWdrY4UGRyks5Upmfxisdxn9pZ9tIeTHOXUeNIMlZwSVEmRKWKzKbA/s1600/new-years-banner+champagne.jpg" height="106" width="320" /></a></div>
<br />
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
~~~</div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<i>A Song for New Year’s Eve</i></div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
by William Cullen Bryant</div>
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<br /></div>
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Stay yet, my friends, a moment stay— </div>
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Stay till the good old year, </div>
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So long companion of our way, </div>
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Shakes hands, and leaves us here. </div>
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Oh stay, oh stay, </div>
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One little hour, and then away.</div>
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<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
The year, whose hopes were high and strong, </div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
Has now no hopes to wake; </div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
Yet one hour more of jest and song </div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
For his familiar sake. </div>
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Oh stay, oh stay, </div>
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One mirthful hour, and then away. </div>
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<br /></div>
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The kindly year, his liberal hands </div>
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Have lavished all his store. </div>
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And shall we turn from where he stands, </div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
Because he gives no more? </div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
Oh stay, oh stay, </div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
One grateful hour, and then away. </div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
Days brightly came and calmly went, </div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
While yet he was our guest; </div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
How cheerfully the week was spent! </div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
How sweet the seventh day’s rest! </div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
Oh stay, oh stay, </div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
One golden hour, and then away. </div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
Dear friends were with us, some who sleep </div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
Beneath the coffin-lid: </div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
What pleasant memories we keep </div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
Of all they said and did! </div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
Oh stay, oh stay, </div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
One tender hour, and then away. </div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
Even while we sing, he smiles his last, </div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
And leaves our sphere behind. </div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
The good old year is with the past; </div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
Oh be the new as kind! </div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
Oh stay, oh stay, </div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
One parting strain, and then away.</div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
~~~</div>
<br />
And the hours count down...<br />
<br />
-Stephanie Osborn<br />
<a href="http://www.stephanie-osborn.com/">http://www.stephanie-osborn.com</a>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0